Blick Rothenberg warns of covert HMRC tax measures

Tax and accounting firm Blick Rothenberg has warned that the UK government may introduce covert measures in the upcoming Spring Statement to boost future tax takings.

The warning comes even as HMRC’s receipts from December 2024 to February 2025 were £11bn ($14.2bn) higher in 2024/25 compared to the same period in 2023/24.

Blick Rothenberg senior associate Tom Goddard said: “The dust has now settled following a manic tax filing season, and HMRC’s last tax statistics before the Spring Statement are looking optimistic for Rachel Reeves and the Treasury.”

“However, although the increase in tax receipts will cover some of the UK’s borrowing costs, it is still possible there will be covert measures in the Spring Statement to increase the Government’s future tax takings by tinkering with tax thresholds and reliefs.”

The increase, according to Goddard, is partly due to fiscal drag, which pushes ordinary workers into higher tax rates due to frozen tax bands.

Goddard said: “Despite income tax being collected via self-assessment being £388m lower in February 2025 than for the same month last year, total income tax receipts are actually up £1.65bn.

“This shows that as wages continue their upwards trend everyday workers are being subjected to higher tax rates on their employment income, leaving them with less disposable funds to enjoy the recent spell of good weather.”

VAT receipts have increased by around 15% over the past two years.

“Although the Chancellor might claim this is because of her decision to introduce VAT on private school fees, the increase in VAT tax revenues appears to be due to inflation driving up the underlying prices on many VATable products and services over the past 24 months,” Goddard added.

Corporation tax receipts continue to rise, now nearly 9% higher than in the 12 months leading to February 2024, Goddard explained.

He added: “The increase in tax takings may be a relief for Rachel Reeves, who does not want the upcoming Spring Statement to be a major fiscal event.

“While cost saving measures will likely be implemented, as the UK’s borrowing costs exceeded forecasts by £20bn in February 2025, hopefully these extra revenues mean that she can ‘stay calm and carry on’ from a tax policy perspective.”

"Blick Rothenberg warns of covert HMRC tax measures" was originally created and published by The Accountant, a GlobalData owned brand.

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