Breaking down all four women's Final Four teams -- and predicting the 2025 national champion

TAMPA, Fla. -- The 2025 women's Final Four has arrived at last, with four heavyweights -- a No. 2 seed and a trio of 1-seeds -- clashing in Friday's national semifinals.

The first game (7 p.m. ET, ESPN) features an SEC showdown between the Texas Longhorns and South Carolina Gamecocks, who have already faced off three times this season. The defending NCAA champion Gamecocks went 2-1 against the Longhorns, who are in their first Final Four since 2003.

The UCLA Bruins and UConn Huskies (9 p.m. ET, ESPN) aren't as familiar with each other, last meeting in November 2023 during a Cayman Islands Thanksgiving event. The Bruins won that meeting, but UConn holds a 7-1 advantage in the series. The Bruins are appearing in their first NCAA Final Four, while the Huskies have played in 16 of the past 17 and 24 overall.

But players and coaches said Thursday that history has little if any bearing on the present. ESPN takes a look at the matchups, picks the winners and predicts which team will be cutting down the nets after Sunday's title game (3 p.m. ET, ABC).

UCLA feels like it's being overlooked despite being the No. 1 overall seed. Are the Bruins underdogs?

Katie Barnes: Sportsbooks are treating the Bruins like a sizable underdog: ESPN BET has UCLA as a 7.5-point underdog. Though I picked the Huskies to win this matchup, UCLA is good! The Bruins have Lauren Betts and have only been beaten by USC this year. In this era of women's college basketball, it's almost impossible to get through a season with no "bad losses." This is doubly true for those in ever-deepening conferences such as the Big Ten, but that's what UCLA did. The Bruins are more than capable of making life difficult for UConn and winning Friday night. Plus, it seems like they have a bit of a chip on their shoulder about being underestimated.

Andrea Adelson: I started to ask a question to UCLA coach Cori Close in her news conference Thursday, opening with "You are the No. 1 overall seed ..." and before I could finish, she said it didn't seem that way based on the way UCLA has been covered all season. Now add in the fact UConn is a favorite and has Final Four experience -- which the Bruins don't -- and it makes sense why UCLA is the perceived underdog. Paige Bueckers and Geno Auriemma alone drive conversation, and while the Bruins have spent more time at No. 1 this season, it is easy to fall back on the team that has been there, done that. "This is this year's UConn's team, not the last 10 or 20 years of UConn teams, and this is our UCLA team," Close said. "I have a lot of confidence, both mentally and physically and tactically, in this UCLA team."

Michael Voepel: The Bruins have stayed even-keel all season. But they've also shown more moxie and grit that they might have lacked last year when they lost in the Sweet 16 to LSU. Guard Kiki Rice and forward Angela Dugalic gave a lot of credit for that to junior forward Janiah Barker, who transferred from Texas A&M. "She's done a great job just bringing a different edge, a mentality to our team," Rice said. "It started in the summer in pickup. I think that toughness and mentality shift in confidence -- where we expect to find a way to win -- is something we really needed."

All that, along with their talent, is why the Bruins likely aren't the underdogs they might appear to be. Obviously, these programs are miles apart in Final Four experience and history. But UCLA should be able to make this a very competitive game.

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Peck: Paige Bueckers is hardest player to guard in Final Four

Carolyn Peck joins "NBA Today" to preview the Final Four matchup between UConn and UCLA.

Is there any way to slow down UConn's Paige Bueckers?

Alexa Philippou: It feels like this is a different version of the Bueckers than in recent years. Auriemma has talked about seeing Bueckers play with less pressure this postseason compared with last, where she perhaps felt that if she didn't get 30-35 points a night, the Huskies would lose. This year, he said, she's putting up these numbers -- 105 points and 59.1% shooting from the field and 61.9% on 3-pointers over the past three games -- more so because she wants to. "She's got a whole different vibe about her," Auriemma said. "Maybe she's lighter, she's not putting as much pressure on herself, and it's just coming easier."

Either way, look for UCLA to limit the Huskies' 3-point attempts, backdoor cuts and defensive rebounding -- those factors, Close told the media Thursday, are the biggest predictors of UConn's success. Bueckers' efficiency has been off the charts, but the Huskies have other players who can hit from deep -- Azzi Fudd, Sarah Strong and Ashlynn Shade, primarily. It's a handful to have to stop, especially if they can get out in transition.

Voepel: Bueckers is so locked in that it seems unlikely she can be slowed down much. UCLA knows that. So the Bruins' focus might be more on trying to make her work a little harder for her points and being as physical as they can be with her. But Bueckers is the type of player who almost constantly rises to the occasion, no matter how big the occasion is.

Is Lauren Betts the biggest individual X factor in the Final Four?

Philippou: The Huskies don't have a dominant center who matches up with Betts, but Auriemma knows about coaching such players. "When we came [to the Final Four] with Kara [Wolters]," Auriemma said Thursday, "I thought it's impossible for us to lose." At 6-foot-7, Wolters was a key member of the Huskies' 1994-95 championship team that went 35-0. Also 6-7, Betts has proved to be that difference-maker all season for the Bruins.

"It doesn't matter what's going on on the offensive end," Auriemma said Thursday. "When it all breaks down and you really need a bucket bad, you got something nobody else has, and that's what [the Bruins] have."

But UCLA isn't just Betts. The Bruins surround her with shooters who can knock down 3-pointers, and she excels in passing out of double teams. That's why Bueckers said the Huskies have to pick their poison: Is it best to prioritize slowing down Betts or shutting down the Bruins' shooters? We'll find out what the Huskies think early on Friday.

Voepel: As Alexa said, super high-quality centers are rarer than any type of player, so Betts stands out in this Final Four. And she has proved herself to be a big-game player who can be dominant on offense and defense. If she has a monster game, UCLA's odds of making the final become particularly good. Betts is the biggest reason, in fact, I'm picking the Bruins to win.

.@CAROLYNPECK analyzes potential obstacles for each team in the women's Final Four ✍️ pic.twitter.com/B6STgesuIe

South Carolina freshman Joyce Edwards struggled in the regional. Will she bounce back Friday?

Adelson: South Carolina coach Dawn Staley said last week that to win the national championship, the Gamecocks will need more production out of Edwards than they have gotten in the past three NCAA tournament games, where she scored a combined 15 points. Edwards had some of her least productive games of the season in the three previous meetings against Texas, so at this point -- given not only that history but the recent NCAA tournament history -- it is hard to envision a breakout game, particularly since Texas plays smothering defense and has limited the leading scorers of its past three opponents to well below their averages.

Philippou: The thing about South Carolina is that even if Edwards isn't playing great, teammates are stepping up around her, primarily Sania Feagin and Chloe Kitts, who was the SEC tournament MVP and the Birmingham Regional 2 Most Outstanding Player. Kitts leads the team in scoring this postseason at 14.1 points per game on 60.3% shooting from the field, the bump in production something she feels is a product of her increased confidence. While Staley surely wants Edwards to return to form, it at least helps to have Kitts playing at such a high level.

Voepel: While Edwards hasn't played well of late, it should be to her advantage that the Gamecocks are playing Texas next. Staley said in Birmingham that things come at players quickly once the NCAA tournament starts, which can be especially hard for a freshman. But Edwards already knows Texas well, scoring 10 and 11 points against the Longhorns in the Gamecocks' two wins. Edwards said Thursday she hasn't been through many "slumps" as a player, and she's ready to end this one.

What is Texas' formula for beating South Carolina?

Adelson: Let's be clear: Texas beat South Carolina just a few months back, ending the Gamecocks' 57-game SEC regular-season winning streak. South Carolina has shown vulnerabilities throughout the season, and its 67-50 loss in January wasn't particularly close. This is a Gamecocks team that can go cold at times because of its poor shot selection and has a propensity for careless mistakes. In the earlier loss, multiple players got into foul trouble, which Staley said forced South Carolina to change its rotation of players and got the team out of sync. Texas has a formidable defense, so that is No. 1. If Madison Booker can continue with the production she has had the past four games, the Longhorns will give themselves a chance to win.

Philippou: The Longhorns' defense has consistently held the Gamecocks in the 60s this season, but Texas has scored anywhere from 45 to 66 points against them. While posts Taylor Jones and Kyla Oldacre will have to have big nights for Texas to win, no player is as important to the Longhorns' success as Booker. In the Longhorns' pair of losses to the Gamecocks, she scored 17 combined points on 7-for-32 shooting. In the Longhorns' win? Twenty points on 7-for-22 shooting. She didn't shoot efficiently, but it was just enough with what Jones and Oldacre did to get Texas the win

Voepel: Booker's pull-up midrange jump shot makes her so dangerous and difficult to guard. South Carolina defensive specialist Bree Hall said Thursday that kind of shot causes more trouble for defenders than any other because it is hard to stop. We should also mention freshmen guards Jordan Lee and Bryanna Preston, who combined for 25 points off the bench in Texas' Sweet 16 victory over Tennessee. Both can help provide a lifeline for Texas' offense. Booker also complimented the youngsters on helping the rest of the Longhorns stay loose and relaxed.

Which two teams will advance to Sunday's title game?

Adelson: South Carolina, UConn

Barnes: South Carolina, UConn

Philippou: South Carolina, UConn

Voepel: South Carolina, UCLA

Which team will win the NCAA championship?

Adelson: UConn. The Huskies are the most talented team top to bottom, starting with Bueckers, who seems to be on a mission to etch her name among the all-time UConn greats with a national championship of her own. UConn is playing its best basketball at the right time.

Barnes: UConn. My gut tells me UConn. Bueckers is playing like she desperately wants a championship. She's taking over games in a way I haven't seen her do consistently since the last time the Huskies played for a title, back in 2022. (Who could forget that double-overtime thriller against NC State?) It's hard to pick against the best player remaining in the tournament, and Bueckers is that player.

Philippou: UConn. Aside from what Katie and Andrea said about Bueckers, the trio of Bueckers, Strong and Fudd is what makes the Huskies most dangerous. That's the best collection of talent left in the tournament, and combined with the coaching of Auriemma and the rest of their depth, is enough to get the Huskies back on the mountaintop.

Voepel: South Carolina. The Gamecocks know what's in them: The ability to bombard teams with so many scoring options. We didn't see that against Duke in the Elite Eight, but it's happened many times this season. If South Carolina can utilize its bench effectively and put together some good scoring spurts -- along with the good defense that is always expected -- the Gamecocks can bring another trophy home.