CEO confidence hits 3-year high amid optimism on labor market, economy

Chief executives haven't been this confident in their business outlook in three years.

Data out Thursday showed the Conference Board's measure of CEO confidence increased nine points in the first quarter of 2025 to a reading of 60, its highest level in three years. The Conference Board added that the move above 50 indicates a shift from "cautious optimism" to "confident optimism" among business leaders.

The survey included responses from 134 US CEOs and was conducted between Jan. 27 and Feb. 10.

“The improvement in CEO Confidence in the first quarter of 2025 was significant and broad-based,” Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of global indictors at the Conference Board said in the release “All components of the Measure improved, as CEOs were substantially more optimistic about current economic conditions as well as about future economic conditions—both overall and in their own industries."

A positive outlook on the labor market helped contribute to the upbeat attitude from CEOs with 73% of CEOs planning to grow or maintain the size of their workforce over the next 12 months. Executives also noted labor shortages continued to ease with more respondents reporting "no or little problems hiring."

However, there were signs of the "low hire, low fire" environment that economists have used to describe the current labor market dynamic. The share of CEOs expecting to expand to their workforce over the next year fell to 32% down from 40% last quarter, while the share planning to no change in total employment rose to 41% up from 34%.

Broadly though, executives expressed upbeat confidence in both the current and future economic outlook, with 44% of CEOs reporting economic conditions were better than six months ago, from just 20% last quarter. Over the next six months, 56% of CEOs expect economic conditions to improve compared to just 33% seen in the prior quarter.

"CEOs also reported an easing of concerns regarding a range of business risks,” said Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., the vice chairman of the Business Council and chair emeritus of the Conference Board. “Compared to Q4 2024, fewer CEOs ranked cyber threats, regulatory uncertainty, financial and economic risks, and supply chain disruptions as high-impact risks. The one exception was geopolitical instability, which 55% of CEOs in Q1 saw as a high-impact risk to their industry—up from 52% last quarter.”

Thursday's upbeat sentiment from corporate leaders runs counter to how consumers have reported feeling in recent surveys. In February, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey hit a seven-month low amid concerns about higher inflation over the next year.