Democrats, get over the Obama Coalition. Time to grow anew

The Rising American Electorate? The New American Majority? The Coalition of the Ascendent? Ultimately, they were all really just the Obama Coalition. 

But, at this point, Democrats need to get over it.

Since the 2008 election, the core Democratic political priority has been to hold onto this coalition – loosely defined as voters of color, unmarried women and young voters. These people powered Barack Obama to his historic and historically large win in 2008. 

Vice President Kamala Harris, President Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama arrive to deliver remarks on the Affordable Care Act at the White House on April 5, 2022. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)

The problem is, for the last nearly 20 years, Democrats haven’t had a strategy to grow – the priority was to hold and fortify this coalition that dominated in a moment in time. Well, like most movements, if you don't have a strategy to grow, you’re vulnerable. And, whether intentionally, instinctively or accidentally, Donald Trump has peeled this status quo coalition apart. 

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In 2016, he supercharged the swing away from Democrats among White voters without a college degree. In 2024, he made that swing multiracial, especially with Hispanic voters, leading to a 27-point change from Joe Biden in 2020 (+38) to Kamala Harris in 2024 (+11) with Latinos. 

For example, Starr County, Texas, is the most Hispanic county in the country (98%), yet, in 2024, it voted Republican for the first time. Asian voters, nationwide, shifted from +27 for Biden in 2020 to +15 for Harris in 2024, according to exit polls. And, in what may be the biggest erosion in the "Obama coalition," Harris won voters under 44 by two points while Biden had won them by 19 points. 

Donald Trump has eroded our coalition with the largest group of voters (White non-college) and the fastest-growing group of voters (Latinos and young voters). 

Where to Go to Grow?

Growth starts with understanding that these voters today aren’t the same as they were 20 years ago or, put another way, "No man ever steps in the same river twice." The young voters of 2008 are now in their 40s. The non-college educated factory worker of 2008 is now retired and looking at assisted living options. The newest voters in the 2028 election might not have even been born when Barack Obama was elected in 2008. 

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Our strategy, going forward, can’t be to "win back" people who never were with us in the first place. Our strategy has to be to build.

Singer Beyonce and Vice President Kamala Harris campaign in Houston, Texas, on Oct. 25, 2024. (Reuters/Marco Bello)

Without a doubt, the Democratic growth strategy has to include non- college-educated voters. But, that won’t be by winning back "White working class" voters overall. Democrats have not won them since 1964. These days, the growth might not come only from nostalgic tropes of non-college voters on a factory floor but also with the ones who work in the service industry and are more multiracial.

Seniors. It used to be that the senior vote was dispositive in national elections and seniors formed the backbone of the Republican Party. In the 2008 election, voters over 65 made up about 20% of the electorate.  By 2024, it may have been closer to 30%. And, in 2024, Democrats underperformed 2020 by six points but overperformed with women 65+ by four points. This may be the first presidential election in modern times where Democrats won the senior vote (or were essentially tied). Instead of only lamenting the loss of young voters and how to simply "recapture" that, maybe Democrats should turn. 

College-Educated Men. Democrats may have made some limited gains (or stayed even) with men over 55 in 2024, and that was mostly driven by college-educated White men. Between 2012 and 2020, Democrats gained with college-educated men – winning 42% in 2012 and 51% in 2020. While Democrats may have maximized potential gains with college-educated women, college-educated men represent a slowly growing group and one where Democrats could have room to grow. In every post-mortem on 2024 or planning discussion for the years ahead, the fundamental question every Democrat should ask is, "How will this help us grow?"

In every postmortem on 2024 or planning discussion for the years ahead, the fundamental question every Democrat should ask is, "How will this help us grow?" (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

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Lower Engagement. One major difference between the 2008 and 2010 elections was that the higher engaged midterm electorate over-indexed Republican in 2010 and the Obama coalition stayed home. Comparing the 2022 midterm to 2024, this trend had flipped. In the final pre-election New York Times poll, people who did not vote in 2020 were poised to vote Trump by four points, while Harris and Donald Trump were tied among the full likely electorate.

This is far from an exhaustive list. Maybe it’s Latinos or Asian voters or even next-generation voters (e.g. people turn 18 between 2026 and 2028). We don’t have to slice and dice to grow. We first have to adopt the belief that our priority is to grow. 

How Do You Grow?

The good news is that most of our growth opportunity voters are similar. Their top concerns are the economy and costs while they have a deep distrust of the political system that they think is rigged against them. They’re typically less political, less ideological and less liberal. That’s the common denominator for growth. 

People wave signs at former President Donald Trump's rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 5, 2024. (Matthew McDermott for Fox News Digital)

If we’re going to hold a growth strategy as our North Star, we have to be a party that resonates with these voters.

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In the latest New York Times/Ipsos poll, fully 72% of people think that the "government is mostly working to benefit itself and the elites." If we want to be serious about a growth strategy, it means being the party of reform and the party of results, not the party of the status quo. We can’t be the part of "saving" institutions but we can contrast with the people who want to eliminate them. When it comes to government, we can be the party of "mend it, don’t end it." 

On the economy, in that same poll, 68% of people think the "economic system in this country unfairly favors the wealthy." If we want to have a multiracial, cross-demographic strategy for growth we have to be the party that’s taking on the status quo of the economy and making it work for everyday people, starting with lower costs. 

Members of the Suffolk County PBA attend a tailgate ahead of former President Donald Trump’s rally in Uniondale, New York, on Sept. 18, 2024. (Julia Bonavita/Fox News Digital)

The list of strategies to grow could go on, and that’s the debate we need to be having. 

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It’s past time to abandon a hope to "hold" or "recapture" what we had 20 years ago. In that amount of time, we’ve gone from the original iPhone to the iPhone 16. That original coalition is no more and it’s time to form one anew. 

In every postmortem on 2024 or planning discussion for the years ahead, the fundamental question every Democrat should ask is, "How will this help us grow?" As William S. Burroughs, the vanguard of the counter-culture, once said, "When you stop growing you start dying."

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