Dollar hovers ahead of PCE and tariff onslaught

Synopsis

The dollar is heading for a steady week and next week's quarterly loss due to concerns over tariffs slowing U.S. growth, affecting yields, stocks, and the currency. The euro and the yen have seen significant gains this quarter, driven by various factors including peace prospects in Ukraine and dollar weakness.

The dollar was headed for a steady week on Friday and a quarterly loss next week as concern about tariffs slowing U.S. growth has pushed down U.S. yields, stocks and the currency.

The euro, at just below $1.08, was headed for its largest quarterly rise in more than a year, gaining more than 4% since the start of 2025 on a combination of peace prospects in Ukraine, dollar weakness, and a leap in benchmark German yields.

The yen was marginally firmer and set for a quarterly gain just under 4%, at 151.19 per dollar - mostly unruffled by a sticky Tokyo CPI reading.

The best G10 performers have been the Scandinavians, which have posted year-to-date gains of near 11% in Sweden and almost 9% in Norway as central bankers seem in no rush to lower rates much further.

Later on Friday, France and Spain publish preliminary inflation figures and the U.S. gets February figures for the Federal Reserve's preferred core PCE inflation gauge.

Anything softer than the 0.3% month-on-month rise, which economists polled by Reuters expect, could keep downward pressure on the dollar and U.S. interest rates.

However traders are on edge about U.S. President Donald Trump's pledge to announce sweeping new tariffs next week, which could contain trade into the weekend. He already said 25% levies on imported cars would take effect on April 3.

The dollar's decline over the past few months has confounded market expectations for a higher U.S. currency under Trump's tariffs, wiping out long dollar positions and leaving traders unsure how to position or react as he upends trade relations.

So far this year the Canadian dollar is actually up around 0.5% to C$1.4306 per dollar, despite Canada bearing the brunt of several rounds of heavy U.S. tariffs. The euro may be in the frame if Europe is the focus of Trump next week.

"If punitive broad-based tariffs are imposed on the EU ... we would expect the EU to fight back and announce countermeasures," said Peter Dragicevich, Asia-Pacific currency strategist at payments platform Corpay.

"In our opinion, if this is realised, the euro may give back ground," he said.

The Australian dollar is at $0.6291 and headed for a quarterly rise of about 2% and is trading near the middle of a channel it has kept since December. Next week the Reserve Bank of Australia's new monetary policy board - with two new members - meets for the first time. No move in rates is expected.

The New Zealand dollar was steady at $0.5728 and headed for a quarterly gain of around 2.5%.

Sterling, at $1.2943, was steady in the Asia session for a gain around 3.5% for the year so far.

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