EU on alert over Russia’s hybrid offensive

The European Union has become increasingly concerned about Russian interference as part of what it sees as a broader hybrid campaign orchestrated by Moscow to weaken the West.

Addressing a meeting of the European Parliament Special Committee on the European Democracy Shield (EUDS) on Tuesday, Bulgarian investigative journalist Christo Grozev stressed that Russia’s hybrid warfare goes far beyond espionage to include sabotage, cyberattacks and disinformation.

According to Grozev – who used to work at investigative website Bellingcat and now writes for the German magazine Der Spiegel and Russia-focused, independent media outlet The Insider – Russia’s campaigns are designed to sow chaos and confusion and to spread fear.

Events such as the Olympics in Paris as well as national elections in Romania, Germany, Moldova and last year’s European Parliament elections have been seen as targets in the hybrid campaign.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last year pledged to set up EUDS to counter the threats. The commissioner for democracy, justice, the rule of law and consumer protection, Michael McGrath, is in charge of developing the initiative.

The European Parliament established the special committee and is tasked with proposing tangible solutions to strengthen the bloc’s resilience to hybrid threats.

Grozev was optimistic that Russian hybrid threats can be countered. “Exposed cells, mapped networks, and convicted spies show that these operations can be countered. Success stems from collaboration – cooperation among journalists and among states,” he said.

What are hybrid threats?

Hybrid threats refer to a range of non-traditional attacks such as cyberattacks or disinformation.

The generic security term covers actions that state or non-state actors use to harm other countries without waging open warfare. As a rule, they are difficult or impossible to attribute to a specific perpetrator.

In recent months, many countries in Europe have reported damage to infrastructure, including underwater data cables in the Baltic Sea, and arson attacks. Investigators believe that Russia is behind many of the attacks, although sometimes it can be made to look like other countries are responsible.

The EU’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said in an annual report last month that “foreign information manipulation and interference is a major security threat to the EU." The report said that in 2024 it tracked disinformation attacks against over 80 countries and more than 200 organizations.

Ahead of a NATO foreign ministers meeting in Brussels in December, Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský said there were 500 suspicious incidents in Europe in 2024 and that nearly 100 of them can be attributed to Russia.

The chief of the military alliance, Mark Rutte, said at the meeting that China, Iran and North Korea are also active in cyberattacks.

Disrupting servers ... and elections

A common type cyberattack is a so-called Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attack, which floods a server with internet traffic in an attempt to make it inaccessible and stop working.

Last year, the pro-Russian hacker group NoName057(16) launched such a DDoS against public institutions and strategic sectors in Spain and other NATO countries seen as allies of Ukraine. While temporarily blocking some Spanish websites, the attack was contained and no data thefts or malicious software were reported.

The hacktivist group emerged after Russia began its war against Ukraine and threatened to respond to the “anti-Russian” actions of Western countries. In July, Spain’s Civil Guard arrested three people for their alleged involvement in the attacks.

According to intelligence services, Russia has also often tried to interfere with democratic processes in Europe by trying to disrupt elections.

The 2024 annual report by the Dutch Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) this week revealed that Russian hackers carried out cyberattacks on public transport companies and political party websites in an attempt to disrupt the European Parliament elections in the Netherlands, making it more difficult for citizens to vote.

According to MIVD Vice Admiral Peter Reesink, the hackers also tried to access vital infrastructure in the Netherlands with the goal of disrupting aid to Ukraine.

In Germany, days before a general election in February, the Interior Ministry warned that Russia was targeting voters with a disinformation campaign seeking to help the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party and “destroy confidence in democracy."

The campaign suggested that the AfD, which is has a more sympathetic line towards Russia than other parties, was being unfairly treated.

In December, the Constitutional Court of Romania (CCR) annulled the country’s presidential election over concerns of Russian interference in the vote, in which the far-right Moscow-backed Călin Georgescu unexpectedly won the first round.

According to the Supreme Council for National Defense (CSAT), Romania was targeted by “actions of a state cyber actor” on information and communication technologies supporting the electoral process.

Keeping an eye on the EU’s neighbourhood

Disinformation and conspiracy theories also continue to flood the EU’s close neighbours such as Moldova and North Macedonia, which is pushing for EU membership.

Moldova, one of Europe’s poorest countries, remains heavily reliant on Russian gas. The former Soviet republic is deeply divided between pro-European and pro-Russian factions. Pro-Western President Maia Sandu won a second term in office in October, and the EU accused Russia of “unprecedented” meddling in the votes in an attempt to favour pro-Kremlin candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo.

In North Macedonia, pro-Kremlin actors on social media play on disillusionment, scepticism, and suspicion, according to a report issued by Euro-Atlantic Council of North Macedonia.

The country's Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade Minister Timcho Mucunski has warned that the EU’s credibility is at stake, and argues that enlargement is the solution to prevent the greater weaponization of Russian propaganda.

He specifically warned about “malign actors” exploiting North Macedonia’s frustration with the constantly shifting requirements to join the EU.

The content of this article is based on reporting by AFP, Agerpres, ANP, BTA, CTK, dpa, EFE, MIA as part of the European Newsroom (enr) project.