Fantasy Baseball: It's not easy fading these players in 2025 drafts, but someone's gotta do it

There are two yearly facts of life I accept when I construct the fade column.

First, we don't offer fades on late-round players. That's just taking the easy way out.

Two, the article is constructed with some melancholy in my heart. A lot of these players are stars, or at least were stars. It's no fun to say they're going to be possible disappointments. I want to root for the stars, too.

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Of course, it's a game of opinions. My shy-away player could easily be one of your targets, and that's fine. That's why we have a game. It's also possible I might roster some of these guys if the context is right; in fact, that's the story with my first name on this list, the signature fade in this year's piece.

Jacob deGrom, SP, Rangers

I'll check my biases at the door — deGrom is my favorite pitcher who debuted after the year 2000.

His games with the Mets were appointment television, an artist at work, with the wonderful SNY booth of Gary Cohen, Ron Darling and Keith Hernandez calling the action. deGrom's control was a dream. His power was breathtaking.

The two Cy Young seasons speak for themselves, but the deGrom year I can't let go of was 2021 — he posted a 1.08 ERA and a 0.554 WHIP over 15 amazing starts. Those aren't MLB stats, those are backyard Wiffle Ball stats, older brother against younger brother. They read like misprints.

Of course, it was an incomplete season. Forearm tightness shelved deGrom in mid-July and later his elbow started to bother him. He didn't pitch again that year. A shoulder problem cost him most of the 2022 season, and then he left the Mets. His first year in Texas ended after six starts, with deGrom blowing out his elbow and heading for his second Tommy John surgery.

We saw deGrom return late last year and he was his usual dominant self: 10.2 innings, two runs, one walk, 14 strikeouts. It's never a matter of what he can do when he's healthy.

I realize anybody can get hurt and pitchers in particular come with heightened injury risk. But given that deGrom steps into his age-37 season and he's had so much physical turmoil the last few years, I can't sign off on a Yahoo ADP inside the top 50.

I hope I'm wrong on this, of course. I'd love to see what deGrom could do even with 125 innings, or 100. Texas is paying him too much money to give up on starting just yet, but perhaps deGrom could become a knockout reliever someday. My heart is allowed to dream. My head needs to stay pragmatic.

(Note: I do have a cheap option on deGrom in one keeper league. I can't completely sit this one out, and the price is almost nil. But the current ADP simply doesn't make sense to me.)

Ronald Acuña Jr., OF, Braves

I have a long-running ethos in fantasy sports about not drafting into injuries — they'll find you. Acuña still has to be treated like an injured player.

He's off his second ACL tear and it's conceded that he won't be ready for the start of the year. Acuña has also said he plans to "take it easy" on the bases upon his return. Here's the rule of thumb with player quotes: take all the sunshine stuff with a grain of salt, but pay urgent attention whenever they mute expectations or say something negative. Acuña can still swing a lethal bat, but he feels like a fantasy trap with an ADP just outside of the top 25 this spring.

Mike Trout, OF, Angels

The Halos finally accepted the inevitable with Trout this year — he's moving to right field, hoping it will limit the wear and tear on his body. I'd go further with this move. Why not let Trout become a full-time DH?

Trout hasn't played a full six-month season since 2016. He's averaged just 67 games over the last four years. He's mostly shut down the running game. His power did return over 29 games last year, but it came with a .220 average.

One reason why I'm eschewing a Trout pick is because I see a similar player profile at a much cheaper cost. Trout's Yahoo ADP is inside the top 100, which I don't understand at all. You can get much of the same upside from a player like Byron Buxton (also the same risk, of course), and he lands far outside the top 200.

Willy Adames, SS, Giants

The dots connect easily on this one. Adames is coming off a career year and moving from a great homer park to a poor one. His stolen bases from last year likely won't carry over with a San Francisco club that doesn't like to run. Adames was unusually fortunate with his RBI opportunities last year, an outlier that likely gets ironed out. And there's often a dip in performance when a player signs a major contract and changes teams. I won't have any Adames shares in 2025, especially with him going inside the top 80 picks.

Xander Bogaerts, 2B/SS, Padres

For all the criticism the Red Sox have received for some of their financial decisions the last few years, they probably dodged a bullet when they weren't able to retain Bogaerts after the 2022 season. The 11-year, $280 million package Bogaerts received from San Diego isn't going to age well.

Bogaerts fell off in every slash column last year and his OPS+ wasn't even over league average. Player development isn't always linear, but player decline usually is. Bogaerts is already a declining asset into his age-32 season.

Speed Round

• Emmanuel Clase, RP, Guardians: I don't like to be the first manager to take a closer in any format, and Clase doesn't have the same strikeout dominance as other top closers, despite his heavy velocity.

• Randy Arozarena, OF, Mariners: His slugging has been in a free-fall for the last few seasons and I worry about the roomy Seattle ballpark psyching him out. Arozarena isn't a high-percentage base stealer but he needs to keep running proactively to maintain fantasy juice. This looks like a career arc heading in the wrong direction, and he's also turning 30 this year.

• Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies: Usually I enjoy watching extreme strike throwers pitch, it's easy on the stomach. But maybe not so much with Nola, who has a home-run problem (he's allowed 62 of them the last two years); maybe his control is too good, and it makes batters comfortable. His strikeout rate has fallen the last four seasons, too.

• Ketel Marte, 2B, Diamondbacks: He'll be a good player, but probably not the exquisite power source he was last year (when he slugged almost 100 points higher than his career norm). Marte is a light base stealer and he's not far removed from an ordinary .240/.321/.407 season in 2022. He's been a round or two overpriced during early draft season.