Guardians vs. Angels Strikeout Prop Preview

The fourth-place Angels (+124) and Guardians (-148) will square off tonight on America's North Coast in Cleveland. Luis L. Ortiz takes the hill for the Guards, looking to keep a decent three-game run going (16ip, 3.38 ERA) against Los Angeles. Mike Trout's finally set to return to the LAA lineup — I'm just not sure that's going to make a bit of difference for our purposes.

Despite some ups and downs from Luis Ortiz this season, I'm buying in on the recent improvements. For starters, I firmly believe in Cleveland's ability to develop starters — but more importantly, these underpinning command metrics (37.3% Ball, 28.3% CSW) generally won't continue to result in such an elevated walk rate (12.2%) as samples widen.

Ortiz features a +96 mph four-seam fastball with tons of arm-side horizontal movement (12.2"), responsible for that outstanding +33% whiff rate. For some perspective, the only SP in Major League Baseball inducing more whiffs per swing on the four-seamer is current Cy Young favorite Hunter Brown. Wow. 

Cleveland's 26-year-old righty complements the heater with an above-average slider (102 Stuff+), thrown down and away to the glove side — inducing swings and misses at an extraordinary +43% clip. The combination's helped get Ortiz to at least seven strikeouts in half his games started, and tonight's matchup couldn't be juicier.

While it's hard to make definitive statements regarding exactly which team boasts the single-worst plate approach in the league, LAA belongs on the shortest of lists...

Angels Disciplinary Metrics, Year To Date

• 27.1% Strikeout — Last
• 6.8% Walk — 29th
• 12.4% Swinging Strike — 29th
• 84.2% Zone Contact — 27th

After going on a little offensive run in the middle of May, the party appears to be over in Hollywood. The Halos took an absolute nosedive this past week (205 PA), posting a pathetic stat line all the way across the board — .193 BA, .537 OPS, 30.4% K, 23.3% Hard Hit, 49 wRC+. Woof. 

Laghezza's Lean:

Rather than shell out the (-150) premium for a CLE win, I'm doing what I do best — eliminating variables and focusing on the more advantageous matchup at a better price. Give me Luis L. Ortiz OVER 5.5 STRIKEOUTS (-130).