Jing Pan
Wed, Apr 16, 2025, 3:42 AM 6 min read
The U.S. stock market has taken a beating as Trump’s tariff-fueled sell-offs continue to rattle investors. But according to one prominent bear, the worst is yet to come.
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Mark Spitznagel, founder and chief investment officer of Universa Investments, warned in commentary to MarketWatch that a historic collapse may be looming.
"I expect an 80% crash when this is over. I just don't think this is it. This is a trap," he said on April 7, days before Trump announced a 90-day pause on his plan to hike tariffs on most countries.
The stock market recovered some losses on that announcement, but it’s still a chilling forecast from Spitznagel. The S&P 500 is down roughly 7% year to date — enough to shake investor confidence — yet Spitznagel suggests that could be just the beginning of a much steeper fall.
And his warnings don’t stop there.
“This is another selloff to shake people out. This isn't Armageddon. That time will come as the bubble bursts,” he added.
Spitznagel is no stranger to market mayhem. He gained notoriety during the 2020 COVID crash, when Universa’s flagship “Black Swan Protection Protocol” fund posted an eye-popping 4,144% return in the first quarter of that year.
Today, his call stands out even among Wall Street’s growing caution. Several major firms have slashed their forecasts for the S&P 500, though none approach Spitznagel’s apocalyptic tone.
Markets are inherently volatile. Whether or not you buy into Spitznagel’s outlook, it might be a good time to consider how to diversify beyond traditional stocks. Here are three simple ways to start.
Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, recently underscored the importance of diversification — and the enduring value of one classic asset.
“People don't have, typically, an adequate amount of gold in their portfolio,” he said in a February interview with CNBC. “When bad times come, gold is a very effective diversifier.” He suggests having 10-15% of a portfolio invested in gold.
Gold is considered a go-to safe haven. It can’t be printed out of thin air like fiat money, and because it’s not tied to any single currency or economy, investors often flock to it during periods of economic turmoil or geopolitical uncertainty, driving up its value.
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