Hope is all but lost for private asteroid probe in deep space — 'the chance of talking with Odin is minimal'

The first-ever private asteroid mission appears to be over, just a week or so after it left the ground.

California startup AstroForge launched its Odin spacecraft on Feb. 26, on the same SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket that sent Intuitive Machines' IM-2 mission toward the moon. Odin ran into trouble just a few hours later, however, and AstroForge has pretty much given up hope of recovering the 265-pound (120-kilogram) probe.

"The chance of talking with Odin is minimal, as at this point, the accuracy of its position is becoming an issue," the company wrote in an update today (March 6).

AstroForge built Odin in less than 10 months, spending just $3.5 million to do so — a fraction of what a similar government-funded space probe would cost.

"This rapid-iteration approach embodies our philosophy: learn fast, adjust quickly and accept calculated risks to gain experience that can't be acquired through simulation or planning alone," the company wrote in today's update.

Related: 'I think we all know that hope is fading.' Private Odin asteroid probe is tumbling in space

Odin was supposed to fly by a small near-Earth asteroid named 2022 OB5 to collect imagery and other data about the space rock. This was meant to pave the way for a future mission, dubbed Vestri, that AstroForge hopes to land on 2022 OB5. Eventually, AstroForge plans to mine 2022 OB5 and other space rocks, extracting valuable resources such as platinum-group metals.

Odin deployed from its Falcon 9 rocket on schedule on Feb. 26, but AstroForge had difficulty establishing sustained communications with the spacecraft — a problem that persists.

The company now has some ideas about what went wrong.

"Our leading theory involves potential complications with solar panel deployment. Odin booted up into a Sun Safe Mode — a protective state designed to conserve power while attempting to re-orient toward the sun," AstroForge wrote in today's update.

"If the panels didn't fully extend and lock, Odin would operate with severely limited power, prioritizing essential systems over communication, periodically attempting to deploy panels and stabilize position," the company added. "How long Odin can stay in this mode before losing power and tumbling depends on how much power the panels are able to generate in this off-nominal situation — from 2.5 hours to indefinitely."

It's also possible that Odin is tumbling through space, which would prohibit its antenna from locking on to Earth.

"If tumbling is occurring, we might expect occasional brief communications when the antenna happens to align with Earth —precisely the pattern we observed early in the mission," AstroForge wrote.

Tracking data shows that Odin is continuing along its planned trajectory. The probe is currently about 270,000 miles (435,000 kilometers) from Earth, meaning it has gone beyond the moon.

"This places our spacecraft in truly deep space territory — an achievement few private companies can claim," AstroForge wrote.

The company will try re-establishing contact with Odin from time to time, according to today's update. But, the company added, "our focus has shifted to applying these hard-won insights to our next mission. The data we did receive, though limited, has proven invaluable in understanding the challenges of deep space communication and spacecraft operation.

"In many ways, Odin has become both a pioneer and a teacher — continuing its mission by informing our future endeavors, even in silence."

AstroForge has been very busy since its founding in 2022. The company launched its first spacecraft, a cubesat called Brokkr-1, on a Falcon 9 in April 2023 to test prototype refinery technology. Brokkr-1 reached orbit successfully but was unable to switch its payload on.

Next up for AstroForge is Vestri, which is scheduled to launch along with Intuitive Machines' IM-3 moon-landing mission in late 2026 or early 2027.

Vestri will be much larger than Odin, tipping the scales here on Earth at 440 pounds (200 kg). Vestri will also feature landing legs, because it will attempt to touch down on 2022 OB5 and get an up-close assessment of the asteroid's platinum-group metal abundance.