Housing market sees record seller-buyer gap

Redfin noted that this is the highest number of sellers since March 2020 and the lowest number of buyers — aside from a brief pandemic-driven dip in April 2020 — across all available records.

The number of sellers is measured by active MLS listings, while buyers are estimated using a model based on pending sales and average buyer timelines.

Pressure on prices

The growing mismatch has led to increased downward pressure on prices. Redfin predicts home prices will decline 1% year over year by the end of 2025.

April’s median home sale price rose just 1.6% from a year earlier to $431,931 — the slowest growth in nearly two years.

Other contributing factors include elevated mortgage rates, economic uncertainty and the mortgage rate lock-in effect, Redfin explained.

Although homeowners have been reluctant to give up the low rates they secured during the pandemic, more are beginning to sell due to life changes like job relocations and divorces.

“The balance of power in the U.S. housing market has shifted toward buyers, but a lot of sellers have yet to see or accept the writing on the wall,” Asad Khan, a Redfin senior economist, said in a statement. “Many are still holding out hope that their home is the exception and will fetch top dollar.”

Seller outlook dims

In April, 44% of active listings had been on the market for at least 60 days — the highest share for that month since 2020. Redfin attributes the stagnation partly to sellers overpricing homes based on outdated comparisons.

“Sellers are already gaining more data points on this front, and will likely face another reality check in the summer, when demand typically starts to slow,” the report stated.

Past trends support this trajectory. In late 2018, when mortgage rates spiked and sellers briefly outnumbered buyers, home-price growth slowed to a six-year low. A similar trend occurred in 2013 and 2014. The current imbalance exceeds those previous periods, suggesting more price pressure ahead.

Buyers overtook sellers until November 2023, when mortgage rates peaked near 8%. Since then, Redfin noted that buyer demand has remained sluggish, even as new listings climbed.

Florida leads buyers’ markets

The Sun Belt is now home to many of the nation’s strongest buyers’ markets. Miami leads with 197.7% more sellers than buyers, followed by West Palm Beach, Florida (182%); Fort Lauderdale, Florida (179.3%); Austin (124.1%); and Jacksonville (119.5%).

In contrast, only seven of the 50 largest metro areas remain sellers’ markets. Newark, New Jersey, leads with 47.1% fewer sellers than buyers. Newark also saw the highest year-over-year price gain at 12.2%.

St. Louis is the nation’s most balanced market, with a near equal number of buyers and sellers. Twelve metros — including Kansas City, Missouri; Chicago; and San Jose — also fall into the “balanced” category.

Condominiums are seeing the most severe mismatch. There are 83.5% more condo sellers than buyers nationwide, largely due to rising insurance premiums, HOA fees and special assessments — particularly in Florida.

The median U.S. condo sale price rose just 0.4% year over year in April, compared to a 1.5% increase for single-family homes.

“It has absolutely shifted to a buyer’s market, which means house hunters have a lot more options — and room to negotiate,” said Tim Harper, a Redfin agent in Daytona Beach, Florida. “It’s not uncommon for a buyer to get a home for 5% less than the list price and $10,000 in seller concessions.”