'Human caused' Manitoba wildfire data misused to downplay climate impact

Social media posts highlighting government statistics reporting most blazes in Manitoba province were "human caused" imply climate change does not feed into warmer and drier conditions in Canada. But fires, no matter their origin, burn more intensely when gusty winds propel the flames toward drought-hit vegetation that is primed to ignite.

"100 of the 111 FIRES in Manitoba right now are confirmed HUMAN CAUSED," reads the caption of a June 3, 2025 X post. "The MEDIA will make you believe otherwise, like it's climate or something."

The post includes what appears to be a collection of government data showing that the majority of wildfires in Manitoba have human origins.

Similar posts on Facebook, Instagram and X shared the numbers while also claiming the media and government were incorrectly citing climate change as the cause of the size of the blazes.

Canadian wildfires have already forced over 31,000 people to evacuate in 2025, with smoke from the flames detected as far away as Europe.

Across the country, the area burned by wildfires is nowhere near the level of Canada's record-breaking 2023 season, but is still above the decade average for this point in the year, according to data from the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (archived here and here).

A reference to "gas" and comments on many of the posts claiming "arson" echo allegations of intentionally started fires, which emerge during many wildfire events and are often used to promote false claims that environmentalists are burning forests to prove the existence of climate change.

As of June 5, government data reports 101 of 113 fires in Manitoba are human caused (archived here), but a spokesperson for the province said this label denotes any fire started by something other than lightning.

"It does not mean 'arson,' it could be a hot exhaust pipe on an ATV in long grass, or a campfire or burn pile not properly extinguished," the spokesperson said.

Glenn Miller, the director of Manitoba Wildfire Service, also explained the distinction to reporters in a press conference on May 8, 2025 (archived here).

"When we use the words 'human caused' it's very broad and it's not necessarily arson, but arson can be at play for sure," he said.

Few arson arrests

The Manitoba division of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) told AFP it had made arson-related arrests after the start of two separate wildfires on May 7 (archived here).

Both cases involved controlled burns -- a practice of burning away dry organic matter to eliminate potential fuel for future wildfires (archived here) -- which could not be contained due to weather, the RCMP said.

Contrary to claims on social media, there were news reports on the arrests and their connection to the wildfires.

Local media also reported on a house fire at Manitoba's Whiteshell Provincial Park on May 20, detected after the evacuation of the area due to wildfire risk. An investigation into possible arson is ongoing.

The RCMP did not reference any other cases of intentionally started fires in the province and AFP could not find any other reports about such cases.

Climate change impact

Laura Chasmer, an associate professor of geography and environment at the University of Lethbridge (archived here), told AFP a fire's origin is just "one part of the puzzle" when it comes to the flames' spread and the wider picture of climate change and its impacts.

"If the fuel conditions are really dry because you've had really warm, dry weather, then that vegetation, that biomass, or even the organic matter on the ground, that's going to burn," she said on June 5 (archived here and here).

Chasmer also explained that gusty conditions in Manitoba and other Canadian prairie provinces facilitated the spread of recent wildfires.

In Canada, the past 20 years of warmer weather and recent prolonged droughts sucking up moisture, which would have previously slowed down blazes, contribute to more intense wildfire seasons, she remarked.

"Fires are becoming a big problem now," she said. "It's just everywhere, every summer."

Read more of AFP's reporting on misinformation in Canada here.

June 6, 2025 Paragraph 8 was updated to reflect the most recent data on fires in Manitoba province.