Is a noticeable market shift around the corner?

The freight market has been all over the place for small carriers, and right now, there’s a feeling that something’s about to give. The big question is whether this shift is going to work in your favor or just keep the squeeze on spot market rates a little longer.

Truckload demand (the need for your services as a small carrier) is still 16% lower than it was last September, but we’re also seeing some carriers tap out. That means fewer trucks on the road but not enough freight demand to make shippers and brokers start bidding up rates. At least, not yet.

If you’re running off the load board, you have to be locked in on two things:

• Stop chasing loads – start tracking trends. The worst thing you can do right now is grab whatever pops up first. Instead, pull up your past 30 days of freight. Where did you get stuck? Where did you find the best reloads? If a lane burned you last month, it’s probably not better now. Adjust.

• Set a minimum rate per mile and stick to it. If you don’t know what you need to run profitably, the brokers sure aren’t going to tell you. The national spot rate is $2.29 a mile, but that number means nothing if your cost to operate is higher. Lock in your breakeven number and don’t move below it.

The carriers winning right now aren’t just “grinding it out.” They’re making deliberate, data-backed decisions on where they run and what they haul.

More carriers are moving away from the spot market and locking in contract freight because the rates are holding up better. If you’re still running off the load board, you’ve probably noticed that brokers aren’t moving on rates, and negotiating a decent payout is getting tougher by the day.

The numbers back it up. The national spot rate has dropped from $2.42 last month to $2.29 today, a 5.4% decline in just four weeks. That’s happening even as some smaller carriers exit the market. But don’t expect this to force rates up yet – there are still enough trucks out there to cover demand, so shippers aren’t feeling the heat to pay more.

On paper, freight volumes are rising, but here’s the catch – contract carriers aren’t rejecting loads like they used to. Instead, they’re taking whatever is available just to keep rolling. That means higher load volume isn’t translating to better rates.

Here’s where the best outbound demand growth is happening:

• Columbus (+19.5%)

• Kansas City (+18.5%)

• Memphis (+16%)

If you’re looking for better load board opportunities, these are the markets to watch. But if you’re running into these cities, be smart – have a reload lined up before you roll in.