Is Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) the Best Airline Stock to Buy Now?

Sheryar Siddiq

Tue, Apr 1, 2025, 10:01 AM 5 min read

We recently published a list of 11 Best Airline Stocks to Buy Now. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE:ALK) stands against other best airline stocks to buy now.

The global airline industry was hit worse than most other industries by the COVID-19 pandemic. According to McKinsey, the industry’s revenue in 2020 was $328 billion, representing a revenue loss of more than $370 billion over 2019. However, the industry has progressively rebounded in recent years and is expected to rise steadily as international travel returns worldwide.

Back in 2023, the aviation value chain seemed encouraging compared to a couple of years prior. Jet fuel manufacturers, who profited from higher gasoline prices, and freight forwarders, having continued to enjoy robust air cargo demand, made the most money. On the other hand, airports, airlines, and OEMs faced the biggest losses in absolute terms. That said, the aggregate results, boosted by the continued recovery in air travel, were a substantial improvement over 2022, when economic losses across the entire chain reached almost $67 billion. On that front, McKinsey stated that 9 of the 11 subsectors the firm analyzed did better in 2023 than in 2022, and 6 of the 11 performed better than in 2019. Furthermore, according to a UN Tourism study released in January 2024, international tourism reached 88% of pre-pandemic levels in 2023 and was on course to rebound to levels before the pandemic.

The US airline sector began 2025 operating at greater than pre-pandemic levels, with demand showing a strong rebound in 2024 and early 2025. According to Bain & Company’s Q1 2025 air travel forecasts, annual air travel demand has surpassed 2019 totals based on revenue passenger kilometers. This recovery marked a significant milestone, with 2024 travel demand surpassing 102.6% of 2019 levels. However, new data shows that this trend seems to have reversed on account of heightened inflation and safety concerns. The market has already begun reflecting this change, with the S&P 500 passenger airline index down about 20.8% year-to-date.

All that said, the future holds a bit more promise. By 2030, the US is expected to replace the UK as the world’s largest outbound travel market, thanks to a spike of 21 million extra visitors between 2024 and 2030. Meanwhile, China is expected to reclaim its position as the third-largest outbound travel market, up from 7th place in 2024, with an increase of more than 26 million travelers. Furthermore, the Airports Council International (ACI) predicts that global passenger traffic would rise at a compound annual growth rate of 3.4% between 2024 and 2043, reaching 17.7 billion people. By 2045, these numbers are predicted to increase to 18.7 billion, nearly double those in 2024. Looking even beyond that, passenger traffic is expected to hit the 22.3 billion mark by 2053, about 2.4 times the 2024 prediction.