JP Morgan stays 'Overweight' on RIL, cites better outlook

Synopsis

JP Morgan has increased the price target for Reliance Industries. The firm maintains an 'Overweight' rating. This is due to a better earnings outlook over the next two years. Reliance shares have faced pressure. This pressure is from earnings cuts in FY25. The retail business is key to the conglomerate's valuation. An improved growth outlook could drive multiples up.

Mumbai: JP Morgan has raised its price target on Reliance Industries to ₹1,568 and maintained its 'Overweight' rating, citing a better earnings outlook over the next two years. The price target implies an upside of 10.2% over the stock's Thursday closing price of ₹1,423.50.

Reliance shares have been under pressure due to sharp earnings cuts in FY25, driven by weaker refining and petrochemical margins, said the brokerage. These commodity-linked businesses, which once made up nearly 44% of EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, Amortisation), now account for only a third.

JP Morgan said earnings revisions have mattered for the stock's performance. In the past, Reliance's relative returns have tracked changes in Nifty EPS (earnings per share) expectations. While some estimate cuts are still possible, the firm sees limited downside and does not expect a repeat of FY24's underperformance.

Reliance shares are up 18% so far in 2025 against the 4.3% gains in Nifty.

JP Morgan said the retail business remains key to the conglomerate's valuation, contributing 46% of the brokerage's sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) model.

"Even though retail is a small part of earnings currently, it trades at high implied valuations," said the brokerage. "An improvement in growth outlook here could drive multiples up; which would have a bigger stock impact than commodity upside."

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