March Madness: Breaking down the race for NCAA men's tournament No. 1 seeds

They may trade places when the new AP Top 25 is released Monday morning, but Auburn and Duke will not switch spots in NCAA tournament bracket projections.

Auburn remains the clear-cut No. 1 overall seed despite taking a pair of losses this past week. Duke still slots in behind the Tigers despite swatting aside North Carolina’s upset bid this past Saturday and demolishing everything else in its path for the past month.

Think of Auburn as a golfer who opened a five-stroke lead on the back nine. The Tigers may have bogeyed at Texas A&M and at home against Alabama last week, but they still maintain a comfortable lead entering the SEC tournament.

The SEC established itself as one of the strongest leagues in recent memory this season by winning an unprecedented 88.9% of its non-conference games and going 58-19 against the other four power conferences. Auburn clinched the outright title in that league with a full week remaining in the regular season.

A 16-4 Quadrant 1 record gives Auburn more top-tier wins than any other team in men’s college basketball. Duke, by contrast, is 7-3 in Quadrant 1 games, a product of the lack of opportunities for marquee wins in an ACC that is way down this season and could produce as few as three NCAA tournament bids.

Auburn Tigers (27-4, 15-3 SEC)

NET: 2 | SOR: 1 | KenPom 2 | Q1A: 8-4 | Q1B: 8-0 | Q2: 6-0 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0

Marquee wins: Houston, Tennessee, at Alabama, at Kentucky, Iowa State, Purdue

Losses: at Duke, Florida, Alabama, at Texas A&M

Duke Blue Devils (28-3, 19-1 ACC)

NET: 1 | SOR: 4 | KenPom 1 | Q1A: 5-3 | Q1B: 2-0 | Q2: 5-0 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0

Marquee wins: Auburn, at Arizona, at Louisville, Illinois

Losses: Kentucky, Kansas, at Clemson

To its credit, Duke did beat Auburn in the lone meeting between the two teams this season at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Duke also holds the edge over Auburn in predictive metrics that take into account its ridiculous average margin of victory in ACC play. The Blue Devils outscored their 20 league opponents this season by an ACC-record 434 points. That's the largest scoring differential in league play by a power-conference team since 1953-54 Kentucky, per Stathead Basketball.

Could Duke overtake Auburn if the Blue Devils win the ACC tournament and the Tigers suffer a third straight loss in the SEC quarterfinals? Perhaps, but don’t count on it. Even then, Duke wouldn’t improve its résumé all that much because it wouldn’t face a likely NCAA tournament team until a potential title game matchup against Clemson or Louisville.

The team in the best position to join Auburn and Duke on the top seed line is Houston, which won the Big 12 regular season title by a remarkable four games. The Cougars now have an impressive résumé to match its gaudy predictive metrics after a sweep of Kansas and late-season road wins over Texas Tech and Arizona.

Houston Cougars (27-4, 19-1 Big 12)

NET: 3 | SOR: 2 | KenPom 3 | Q1A: 5-3 | Q1B: 6-0 | Q2: 7-1 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0

Marquee wins: at Texas Tech, at Arizona, Kansas (2), Iowa State, BYU

Losses: Auburn, Alabama, Texas Tech, San Diego State

A lot would have to go wrong during conference tournament week for Houston to slip from a No. 1 seed to a No. 2. The Cougars’ spot would only be in jeopardy if they crash out early in the Big 12 tournament and two or more teams behind them on this list make deep runs in their conference tournaments.

The leading contenders for the final No. 1 seed are a trio of SEC teams with similar résumés. Florida is in the best position entering the SEC tournament because it boasts wins over each of the other three top SEC teams and has the fewest overall losses. Alabama and Tennessee both have more Quadrant 1 wins than the Gators but also more overall losses.

Florida Gators (27-4, 14-4 SEC)

NET: 4 | SOR: 3 | KenPom 4 | Q1A: 5-3 | Q1B: 3-1 | Q2: 9-0 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0

Marquee wins: at Auburn, at Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, at Mississippi State, Ole Miss

Losses: at Tennessee, at Kentucky, Missouri, at Georgia

Alabama Crimson Tide (24-7, 13-5 SEC)

NET: 6 | SOR: 5 | KenPom 6 | Q1A: 10-5 | Q1B: 0-2 | Q2: 8-0 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0

Marquee wins: at Auburn, Houston, Kentucky (2), at Texas A&M, Illinois, at Mississippi State, Creighton

Losses: Auburn, Florida, at Tennessee, at Purdue, at Missouri, Ole Miss, Oregon

Tennessee Volunteers (25-6, 12-6 SEC)

NET: 5 | SOR: 6 | KenPom 5 | Q1A: 6-5 | Q1B: 3-1 | Q2: 5-0 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0

Marquee wins: Florida, Alabama, at Texas A&M, at Louisville, at Illinois, Missouri

Losses: at Auburn, at Florida, Kentucky (2), at Ole Miss, at Vanderbilt

Michigan State Spartans (26-5, 17-3 BIG TEN)

NET: 11 | SOR: 8 | KenPom 9 | Q1A: 6-2 | Q1B: 6-2 | Q2: 5-1 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0

Marquee wins: at Maryland, Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois (2), Michigan (2), Oregon

Losses: Kansas, at UCLA, Memphis, at USC, Indiana

Who else still has slim hope of playing its way onto the No. 1 seed line? Michigan State is the only realistic option. The Spartans trail Florida, Alabama and Tennessee entering conference tournament play because their road wins aren’t as impressive and because they’re the only team among that quartet with a road loss outside Quadrant 1.

And yet there is a path for Michigan State if the Spartans validate their Big Ten regular season title with a conference tournament crown. Could a double champion of the second-best league in college basketball get left off the No. 1 seed line even with 14 or more Quadrant 1 victories? It’s possible, but the Spartans would have a real case.