Mayo Sees JPMorgan Becoming $1 Trillion Bank Within Three Years

Georgie McKay

Mon, May 12, 2025, 8:25 AM 2 min read

(Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. could become the first bank to reach a $1 trillion market capitalization within the next three years, according to Wells Fargo.

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If the largest US bank maintains its lead in returns, efficiency and market share, it’s a matter of “more like ‘when’ and not ‘if’ JPM reaches the $1 trillion market cap milestone,” veteran analyst Mike Mayo and colleagues wrote in a May 11 note.

Achieving a $1 trillion market cap would make JPMorgan the first bank to join the ranks of tech giants like Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp.

The forecast assumes a degree of deregulation — where JPMorgan stands to be among the biggest beneficiaries — as well as continued economic growth and a subsiding trade war.

Mayo added that a $1 trillion market capitalization now seems in sight over three years, so long as concerns around capital, competition costs and CEO succession don’t derail progress. He cautioned, however, that if there is a recession and a bear market, talk about a $1 trillion valuation won’t be happening.

“It would involve our ‘good case’ scenario, effective deployment of record excess capital, and a stock that trades at a P/E achieved in Trump 1.0,” they wrote. The good-case scenario is 2027E EPS of $25 per share, versus a base-case at $22 a share. The bank could accumulate $200 billion of excess capital over three years before buybacks, depending on earnings and regulatory developments.

JPMorgan shares are up as much as 4.2% Monday, trading at $260.95 as at 11:06 a.m. in New York, with a market capitalization of about $724 billion. Wells Fargo rates the stock overweight, with a price target of $300. The 12-month average price target among analysts is $258.45, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

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