Metal stocks take the blow as tariff war fears intensify

Mumbai: Metal shares tumbled on Friday, emerging as the biggest losers in the day's trading, on heightened concerns that demand would take a hit if the ongoing tariff war between the US and China led to a sharp downturn.

The Nifty Metal index plunged 6.6%-its worst day since the announcement of general election results in June 2024.

Hindustan Copper was the top loser on the index, falling 8.9%. National Aluminium Company (Nalco), Tata Steel, Vedanta and Hindalco, all down over 8%.

"The major worry for the metals sector is a global slowdown in trade post the implementation of these tariffs, which can bring down the demand for industrial goods, including metals," said Apurva Sheth, head of research at Samco Securities.

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Sheth said if the US enters a recession, there may be a slowdown in demand in India as well, which can hurt this sector.

The US imposed tariffs of 26% on Indian imports on Tuesday.

The import tariffs in the US have triggered worries about the dumping of products into countries like India.

"The US imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports from China, Japan and South Korea, and this may prompt these countries to divert their exports to India, hurting domestic producers," said Arijit Malakar, equity research analyst at Ashika Stock Broking.

Sheth said the government will keep an eye on any dumping of goods but in the short to medium term, the stocks are likely to be under pressure, and could bear the brunt of the tariff chaos.

What should investors do?
"We would suggest investors stay away from this sector until more clarity emerges," said Sheth.

Malakar said a slowdown is imminent in the US, as setting up manufacturing plants will take a few years, and higher costs of production may hurt corporate earnings, consumer demand, or both.

The Nifty Metal index is down 2.6% this year as against the Nifty's drop of 3.5%.

"While the entire metals basket may be hurt by a slowdown, companies like Tata Steel and Hindalco, which have high US export exposure, may fare worse. Currently, we believe that National Aluminium, JSW Steel and Hindustan Zinc, which cater mainly to domestic demand may be better placed than others," said Malakar.

Parthiv Jhonsa, lead analyst-metals and mining at Anand Rathi Institutional Equities, said the correction metal shares on Friday is a knee-jerk reaction to the tariff news.

"We do not see a slowdown in demand for metals in India. We believe that companies focused on domestic markets or those with significant exposure to the Indian market are better positioned in the coming months, considering the current global uncertainties," he said.