Netflix earnings: Wall Street high on stock as 'defensive choice' while Big Tech reels from Trump's tariffs

Thu, Apr 17, 2025, 8:04 AM 3 min read

Netflix (NFLX) is set to report first quarter earnings after the bell on Thursday with the company sitting as one of the best-positioned Big Tech names amid an uncertain economic environment dominated by President Trump's trade war.

"Amid recent market volatility, Netflix's strong subscription model with critical entertainment (which historically has performed well in a recession) has made the stock a defensive choice for investors," Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich wrote on Tuesday.

Netflix stock rose just above the flatline in early trading on Thursday and has been up 8% this year, a standout when measured against year-to-date declines of 17% or more for its larger tech peers, including Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL). The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is off about 9% in 2025.

Here's what Wall Street expects for the first quarter, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates.

• Revenue: $10.50 billion versus $9.37 billion last year; Netflix's guidance: $10.42 billion

• Earnings per share: $5.68 versus $5.28 last year; Netflix's guidance: $5.58

This will also be Netflix's first report that no longer reports subscriber numbers as the company focuses on driving greater engagement and top-line growth. At the end of 2024, the company had 301.6 million global subscribers. Netflix said in its fourth quarter shareholder letter it will disclose subscriber data in the future "as we cross key milestones."

"Netflix has won the streaming wars. Case closed," MoffettNathanson analyst Robert Fishman wrote in a client note last month. "Because [Netflix] has more content, it drives better engagement, leading to more subscribers and possibly better pricing power in a virtuous cycle."

According to the Wall Street Journal, Netflix is targeting lofty financial goals, which include doubling its revenue by 2030 and reaching a valuation of $1 trillion. The streamer's market cap is currently just north of $400 billion.

"To the extent the company sees a runway for continued strong subscriber growth, we think it should give investors confidence in Netflix's ability to grow over the next several years," BofA's Reif Ehrlich said in reaction to the Journal report. The analyst maintained a Buy rating and a $1,175 price target on shares.

In 2024, Netflix posted a record-breaking year, which included revenue growth of 16% as operating margins surged 600 basis points to nearly 27%, about 300 basis points higher than its guidance at the outset of the year.