Nvidia stock poised to swing more than 7% as crucial earnings report will test the market rally

Thu, May 22, 2025, 10:07 AM 3 min read

Nvidia (NVDA) stock is likely to gain or lose as much as 7.4% the day after the AI chipmaker reports quarterly earnings results May 28, options traders tracked by Bloomberg predict.

The 7.4% figure from Bloomberg consensus data is lower than the average 11.3% swing in Nvidia shares during intraday trading the day following earnings results over the past eight quarters. This means options traders expect a lower level of volatility from Nvidia shares on May 29 as compared to the prior eight quarters.

Nvidia shares fell 8.5% in February after the company's fourth quarter earnings topped Wall Street's expectations, but its outlook for first quarter gross margin came in lower than estimates. The day after the chipmaker’s earnings report, shares rose as much as 2.8% and fell as much as 8.6%, trading in a range of 11.4%.

While the range expected by options traders for the trading session May 29 could mean Nvidia stock gains as much as 7.4% or loses as much as 7.4%, it also implies other potential scenarios. For example, the stock could gain as much as 5.4% and fall as much as 2%. Or it could fall as much as 4% and rise as much as 3.4%.

Though Nvidia shares have, on average, proven volatile following the company's last eight quarterly earnings reports, investors have seen big gains from holding on to their Nvidia shares. According to data compiled by Yahoo Finance Anchor Jared Blikre over the past 10 years, Nvidia shareholders have seen a nearly 120% median return if they buy shares before Nvidia’s earnings results and hold on to them for 12 months.

Nvidia’s May 28 results come after a turbulent year for the stock amid AI developments in China and ever-changing trade policies from the Trump administration.

Nvidia stock struggled to start 2025 after a new cheap AI model from Chinese startup DeepSeek prompted skepticism of Big Tech's massive spending on AI infrastructure and fears of a spending slowdown. Signs of a potential slowdown in AI data center investments from Microsoft (MSFT), one of Nvidia's biggest customers, further fueled those fears.

President Trump’s trade war with China, his ban on exports of Nvidia's specialized chips to the country, and threats of global reciprocal tariffs have also hammered the stock, just as Nvidia’s competition in the Chinese market from domestic tech firm Huawei heats up.

The US temporary trade truce with China, Nvidia’s business prospects abroad (i.e., its expansion into Saudi Arabia), and Trump’s repeal of a restrictive Biden-era chip trade policy have boosted shares in recent weeks ahead of the chipmaker’s earnings report.