Oil prices decline as investors continue to fret over tariff impact

Synopsis

Oil prices declined on Monday due to concerns over the impact of U.S. tariffs on global economic growth and fuel demand, coupled with rising output from OPEC+ producers. Despite recent market fluctuations, analysts expect support around $65/$62 levels for WTI before a recovery.

Oil prices fell on Monday as concern about the impact of U.S. import tariffs on global economic growth and fuel demand, as well as rising output from OPEC+ producers, cooled investor appetite for riskier assets.

Brent crude fell 25 cents, or 0.4%, to $70.11 a barrel by 0037 GMT after settling up 90 cents on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $66.76 a barrel, down 28 cents, or 0.4%, after closing 68 cents higher in the previous trading session.

WTI declined for a seventh successive week, the longest losing streak since November 2023, while Brent was down for a third consecutive week after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed then delayed tariffs on its key oil suppliers Canada and Mexico while raising taxes on Chinese goods. China retaliated against the U.S. and Canada with tariffs on agricultural products.

"Crude oil was weighed down last week by U.S. tariff uncertainty, U.S. growth concerns, the potential lifting of U.S. sanctions on Russia, and OPEC+ opting to increase output," IG analyst Tony Sycamore said in a client note.

"Nonetheless, with much of the bad news likely factored in, we expect weekly support around $65/$62 to hold firm before a recovery back to $72.00," he said in reference to the WTI price.

Oil prices clawed back some loss on Friday after Trump said the U.S. would increase sanctions on Russia if the latter fails to reach a ceasefire with Ukraine.

The U.S. is also studying ways to ease sanctions on Russia's energy sector if Russia agrees to end its war with Ukraine, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, said it will proceed with oil output hikes from April.

Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on Friday said OPEC+ could reverse the decision in the event of market imbalance.

Last week, Trump said he wanted to negotiate a deal with OPEC member Iran to prevent the latter seeking nuclear weapons - though Iran has said it is not seeking such weapons.

Trump is pursuing a "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran under which the U.S. on Saturday rescinded a waiver that allowed Iraq to pay Iran for electricity, a State Department spokesperson said.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday said his country will not be bullied into negotiations.

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