Prediction: 1 Stock That Will Be Worth More Than Lucid 2 Years From Now

Leo Sun, The Motley Fool

Sat, Apr 19, 2025, 5:57 AM 5 min read

Lucid Group (NASDAQ: LCID) became a hot stock after it went public by merging with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) in July 2021. The producer of luxury electric vehicles (EVs) started trading at $25.24 on its first day, and its shares more than doubled to a record high of $55.52 just four months later.

Lucid impressed investors because it was led by Tesla's former chief engineer Peter Rawlinson, and it was already ramping up its production of its first Air sedans.

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At its peak, Lucid's market cap hit $91.4 billion -- or 150 times the $608 million in revenue it would generate in 2022. At the time, Lucid claimed it could deliver 20,000 vehicles in 2022, 49,000 vehicles in 2023, and 90,000 vehicles in 2024. Unfortunately, Lucid only delivered 4,369 vehicles in 2022, 6,001 vehicles in 2023, and 10,241 vehicles in 2024.

Lucid blamed that sluggish growth on its supply chain issues, intense competition, and a challenging macro environment. It also postponed the launch of its second vehicle, the Gravity SUV, from 2023 to 2024. Rawlinson's resignation this February cast even more dark clouds over its future. That's why Lucid's stock now trades at about $2.

But even at these depressed levels, Lucid's stock isn't a bargain. It still has a market cap of $7.2 billion, which is 4.8 times 2025 sales estimate of $1.5 billion. That might seem reasonable compared to its projected revenue growth rates of 86% in 2025 and another 87% in 2026 -- but tariffs, supply chain disruptions, elevated interest rates, and other macro headwinds could cause it to miss those rosy estimates by a mile. If that happens, Lucid's stock could stagnate or slide lower over the next two years.

On the bright side, Lucid won't go bankrupt anytime soon. It ended 2024 with $6.14 billion in total liquidity, which it expects to support its expansion through the second half of 2026, and it's still firmly backed by the Saudi Arabian government, which owns more than 60% of its shares through its Public Investment Fund (PIF). However, I believe another unloved EV maker, Polestar (NASDAQ: PSNY), might grow faster than Lucid and eclipse its market cap within the next two years.

Polestar was Volvo's racing team and brand for high-performance cars. However, Volvo's parent company, Geely, spun off Polestar as a stand-alone EV maker in 2017, and it went public by merging with a SPAC in June 2022.