'Putin remains confident in Russia’s ultimate victory in Ukraine,' US intelligence reports

Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to victory in Ukraine and his objectives have not changed since the beginning of the war, according to a recent report from the United States Defense Intelligence Agency.

The report, which was prepared by the DIA for the US House of Representatives, includes up-to-date information as of May 11, 2025.

According to the report, "Putin almost certainly is committed to victory in Ukraine, and his objectives remain mostly unchanged since the beginning of the war: Ukrainian neutrality and a further partition of the Ukrainian state."

Moreover, Putin sees "the war in Ukraine as an existential struggle against the West that will determine Russia’s place in the world, Putin’s hold on power, and his historical legacy."

Despite recent attempts at peace talks, Putin "is prepared to use military force at least through 2025," and "remains steadfast in his demand that Ukraine be permanently prohibited from joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) while insisting Kyiv withdraw all its military forces from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts."

The report further asserts that, while Russia aims to continue its war in Ukraine, it seeks to avoid direct confrontation with NATO due to a lack of military capacity. As a result of its war in Ukraine, Russia's "capabilities to deter, fight, or militarily compete with NATO are likely to be degraded for at least the next three years."

Since the start of its invasion in 2022, Russia has lost more than "10,000 ground combat vehicles, including more than 3,000 tanks, as well as nearly 250 aircraft and helicopters, and more than 10 naval vessels," and experienced more than 700,000 military personnel casualties.

According to the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces, Russia's losses are even higher – as of May 24, Russia has lost around 979,830 troops in Ukraine since the beginning of its full-scale invasion.

While Russia lacks the ability to go head-to-head with NATO, "Moscow remains fully capable of employing asymmetric capabilities against the United States and allies, including cyber and information campaigns."

Furthermore, Russia has been implementing a destabilization campaign against the West, with the aim "to undermine Western cohesion and support to Ukraine."

Since Jan. 2024, if not earlier, pro-Russian agents have been connected to "various arson,  sabotage, and assassination plots against military and civilian targets in Europe."

Despite immense losses and slow advances in the war, the Kremlin is prepared to continue its strategy of attrition through at least the end of the year, calculating that it can outlast Ukrainian resources and Western support for Ukraine.