Sidelined homebuyers see opportunity in a possible recession

According to the survey, 63.4% of respondents expect a recession within the next year, reflecting the highest level of concern since 2019.

Despite that, nearly 30% of home shoppers said a downturn would make them more likely to purchase a home — almost double the 15.8% who said it would make them less likely to buy.

“Confidence in the economy has clearly taken a hit amid ongoing headlines around trade, tariffs, and rate uncertainty,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. “But while concerns are definitely present, some buyers anticipate that a downturn can bring opportunity. Well-prepared buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines are likely motivated by personal and lifestyle needs like growing families, new jobs, or retirements and these considerations can outweigh short term economic uncertainties.”

Life circumstances outweigh economy

The majority of respondents — 54.4% — said a potential recession would have no impact on their decision to purchase a home. For many, lifestyle drivers such as family growth, job changes or retirement remain the primary motivation to buy.

Of the 29.8% who said a recession would make them more likely to purchase, most cited expectations of lower mortgage rates and reduced competition as motivating factors.

Inventory and budget constraints

While some buyers see promise in a cooling economy, many still face significant hurdles. A lack of suitable housing inventory was cited by 44.3% of respondents as the biggest obstacle. Despite improved listing activity compared to last year, total active inventory remains 16.3% below historic levels.

Budget limitations were identified by 36% of buyers, with potential inflation and high mortgage rates posing additional threats in the coming months.

Financial barriers are also mounting — 13.5% of buyers cited poor credit scores and 8.2% reported difficulty qualifying for a mortgage. Tighter lending standards and changing student loan policies may add further strain.

Signs of a calmer market

The survey also indicates that the intense competition of the past few years is beginning to ease. Just 7.7% of respondents said overbidding was a top concern, down from 10.4% one year ago. This shift coincides with a rise in available listings, longer time on market and more stable pricing.

For buyers who remain financially positioned to act, current conditions may offer greater negotiating power and less pressure than in recent years.