Snap election pits Canada against Trump

OTTAWA — Prime Minister Mark Carney called a snap election on Sunday, saying he needs a mandate from Canadians to take on U.S. President Donald Trump.

The federal campaign kicks off days ahead of a new slate of Trump tariffs, and at a time when Canadians are increasingly worried the president will make good on his threats of economic and cultural takeover.

“President Trump claims that Canada isn't a real country. He wants to break us so America can own us. We will not let that happen,” Carney said outside of Rideau Hall in Ottawa. “We're over the shock of the betrayal, but we should never forget the lessons.”

Voters will go to the polls on April 28 with a clear ballot box question: Who is best to handle Trump?

Canada’s Liberal Party was staring down a heavy defeat at the start of 2025, worried it was about to be wiped out from the House of Commons. But Trump’s return to the White House has overturned the political landscape to the extent that most national opinion polls currently favor the Liberals to win.

Pollster Frank Graves of Ekos Research Associates says there has been a "breathtaking transformation" of the race.

“What I've been seeing developing over the last two months is the most improbable inversion of the political landscape in a non-campaign period that I’ve ever seen,” Graves said on “The Herle Burly” pod last week.

Carney will spend the next five weeks on the campaign trail attempting to hold onto that momentum, while fending off attacks from his biggest political rival, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

The populist Conservative leader devoted years to bashing then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau over climate policy and concerns about the cost of living. The aggressive campaign was so effective that Liberals forced Trudeau out of office and replaced him with Carney who used his first day on the job to axe the consumer carbon tax — just as Poilievre had been promising to do.

The Conservatives have been criticized by the electorate for reacting too slowly to Trump, who has imposed a series of tariffs on Canadian goods while simultaneously fixating on the idea that Canada should be America’s 51st state.

Trump has even taken credit for turning the Liberals’ fortunes around.

“Before I got involved and totally changed the election — which I don’t care about, probably, it’s our advantage, actually — but the Conservative was leading against, I call him Governor Trudeau. The conservative was leading by 35 points,” he said Friday, while exaggerating the polls.

“I think Canada is a place, like a lot of other places, if you have a good candidate, the candidate is going to work,” Trump said.

The Liberals are attempting to secure a fourth mandate, a feat last pulled off in Canada in the 1970s.

None of this was imaginable two months ago — before Trump’s tariff threats, the annexation taunts and his warnings that the U.S.-Canada border is just an artificial line.

Canadians have responded to Trump’s intimidation tactics with an outburst of patriotism. They are canceling spring break plans, buying made-in-Canada products, damaging Teslas and booing “The Star Spangled Banner” at professional sporting events.

Carney’s campaign slogan is “Canada Strong” while Poilievre’s is “Canada First.”

“We will never be an American state. We will always be a sovereign and self-reliant country,” Poilievre said Sunday as he launched his campaign. “We will stare down this unprovoked threat with steely resolve.”

Trudeau got sunk by the polls, which inspired unrest in his party. In early January, he announced that he would resign in March, just as soon as his party could select a new leader.

“It was like removing a sickness or a tumor from the party,” said Fournier. “Suddenly it could recover.”

Carney won the Liberal leadership in a landslide, a rookie politician who has run the central bank of Canada, and of England. He has argued that what Canada needs most right now is a crisis manager.

But the biggest factor in the Liberals' ascension has been Trump.

“His insertion into this election has made Canadians fundamentally shift from a mindset where they were, like Americans, deeply concerned about the cost of living, housing, affordability, taxes — to now, where they’re increasingly worried about the external threat that Trump is now posing to Canada” said David Coletto, CEO and founder of Abacus Data.

In a recent interview with Fox News, the president was asked about how his recent treatment toward Canada appears to be helping the Liberal party.

"I don't care," he said. "I think it's easier to deal, actually, with a liberal and maybe they're going to win, but I don't really care.”

Trump went on to say Poilievre “is stupidly no friend of mine” because of the “negative things” he has said about the president.

Poilievre has tried to frame the comments as proof that Trump is endorsing Carney, while the Conservative leader attempts to revamp his strategy to meet the moment.

Poilievre has run a campaign with populist appeal and was viewed as the antidote to the frustration that Canadians were feeling about their day-to-day lives. He was promising to “ax the tax,” build more homes and stop crime.

“But he hasn’t come up with a clear answer to how he is going to defend Canada from Trump,” Coletto said.

Trump is also a divisive figure within the Conservatives’ own coalition of voters. Trump’s popularity in Canada has hit new lows during the past number of months, but among conservative supporters, about one in four still like Trump, said Coletto.

“Poilievre has to find a way to hold that coalition together because if he goes too hard on Trump, there’s a risk he alienates some of those who like him and risks losing it,” Coletto says.

The Conservatives' path to victory requires winning more seats in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. The Liberals must do well in Quebec to make up for their weakness in Western Canada — a formula that has worked for the party in every election.

Carney has been prime minister for just nine days, after he won a Liberal leadership race to replace former Justin Trudeau.

Since then he’s cancelled the Liberals’ carbon tax and reversed other unpopular Trudeau polices, traveled to London and Paris to discuss a defense strategy with Europe, met with King Charles III, skated with the Edmonton Oilers, met with provincial premiers to carve out a Trump strategy, and even marched in a St. Patrick’s Day parade.

“We’re offering a positive vision for the country, a vision of action. You can see the action that’s happened,” he said in a campaign-style stop in Edmonton on Thursday. “I haven’t been prime minister for a week yet, and you can see what we’ve done thus far.”