Sports records: Which ones are breakable and which ones aren't?

With Alexander Ovechkin surpassing Wayne Gretzky’s goals record, it gives us a chance to consider some of the most hallowed records in sports history. Cal Ripken’s consecutive games streak, Tom Brady’s career yardage streak, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s career scoring record — sorry, that’s LeBron James’ scoring record now. See? Nothing lasts forever.

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Well, almost nothing. Certain records are untouchable, thanks to the way sports have shifted in the decades — or century — since they were set. Others are potentially breakable in this era for the same reason — the way that athletes, and strategy, have improved over the decades. So we’ve divided these records into three categories: Absolutely unbreakable, probably unbreakable, and definitely breakable. So which of sports’ most hallowed records will one day fall, and which will stand long after everyone now playing has retired?

Absolutely Unbreakable

These are the records that will stand the test of time thanks to the talents of those who set them, combined with the changing eras of sports. (Note: We’ve left out certain records here that are obviously out of reach — think Cy Young’s 511 wins, or John Wooden’s 10 championships in 12 years, or Richard Petty’s 200 NASCAR Cup Series victories — simply because the level of competition is so much greater.) The greatest obstacle to record-breakers isn’t talent, it’s longevity — the incentives, for both athletes and teams, to craft multiple-decade-long careers are diminishing.

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Baseball: Pete Rose’s 4,256 career hits

Freddie Freeman is the active leader in hits, with 2,270 as of April 3. Freeman averages 181 hits a year, meaning he’ll need to play at that level until his late 40s to catch Rose, who had 172 hits in his Age 41 season and played until he was 45. Not only do you have to hit, but you have to hit for a long time. Based on longevity alone, Rose is untouchable as no active player is within even 1,000 of the number of games he played.

Baseball: Cal Ripken’s 2,632 consecutive games played

If Matt Olson, baseball’s current active consecutive-games-played leader, played every single game from now through the 2036 season, he still wouldn’t pass Ripken. No player is going to play every game, day in and day out, for more than 16 years in a row without rest, without injury, without being released or retiring. This might be the most impressive record of them all.

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Women’s tennis: Margaret Court’s 24 (pre-Open) and Serena Williams’ 23 Grand Slam victories

Court and Williams were titans in their eras, and there’s little chance any current player has for catching either. The active leader is Iga Świątek, who already has five major victories at age 23. But four of those came at the French Open, and she's had very little success at either Wimbledon or the Australian Open. Anyone who can challenge the leaders will need to be successful at all four venues — and have the longevity to post victories for years on end.

Golf: Jack Nicklaus (18) and Patty Berg (15)’s major victories

The problem that all challengers to Nicklaus and Berg face is that the talent pool across golf is simply too deep to allow any one player to establish dominance necessary to challenge them. Brooks Koepka, for instance, leads all active men — Phil Mickelson notwithstanding — with five majors, and there’s no chance he’ll be able to outrun the field for another 14 majors.

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NFL: Jerry Rice’s 22,895 career receiving yards

Think about what Jerry Rice combined: inborn talent, durability and two of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history. The closest active player — assuming Julio Jones is retired — is DeAndre Hopkins, who sits nearly 10,000 yards behind Rice at 12,965. Hopkins averages 1,238 yards a season, meaning he’d need to play another eight years, until he’s 41, to catch Rice. All due respect to Mr. Hopkins and other seasoned receivers, but there’s no way a 41-year-old is competing with 23-year-old cornerbacks in the modern NFL, ever again.

NHL: Wayne Gretzky’s 2,857 career points

Sure, Ovechkin claimed Gretzky’s goals-scored mark, but Gretzky’s overall points record — goals + assists — is untouchable. How great was Gretzky? He would still be the all-time points leader even if he never scored a single goal in his career. The active points leaders are Sidney Crosby (1,678) and Ovechkin (1,616). Crosby averages 102 points over an 82-game season, meaning he would need to add another 12 years to his 20-year career to catch Gretzky. We’re confident in saying that won’t happen.

Probably Unbreakable

A lot has to go right for a long time for these records to fall. We’re not saying it’s impossible, but — to one degree or another — it’s close to that.

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Baseball: Barry Bonds’ 762 career home runs

Two active players are in the conversation here: Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. After his Age 32 season, Bonds stood at 374 home runs. Judge, who already has five dingers this season, was at 315. After his Age 29 season, Bonds had 259; Ohtani had 225. So they are in the ballpark, so to speak. The caveat, of course, is that Bonds (for some reason) got better as the years went on. He hit 40 in a season once in his 20s, then seven times in his 30s. Can Judge and/or Ohtani level up similarly? That's the question.

NFL: Tom Brady’s seven Super Bowl titles

You know who’s in line for this one: Patrick Mahomes, although he’s already let two chances get past him. Mahomes already has three Lombardi trophies, and could/should get several more. Will he capture enough to match Brady? There’s a whole lot that’s out of his control, but as we’ve seen over the last half-decade, whatever’s within Mahomes’ control tends to go his way. The big question: Can Kansas City keep a team together alongside him?

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NFL: Emmitt Smith’s 18,355 career rushing yards

Here’s a record of pure durability that might just be broken due to a combination of stronger athlete and 17-game (18 soon enough) NFL schedule. Derrick Henry is your current active leader at 11,423 yards; he averages 1,428 yards in a 17-game season. Smith played for 15 years; Henry has played for nine, and he would get within range of Smith in five years, assuming he stays healthy and continues producing. There are always “ifs” when you’re relying on NFL players to stay upright for long periods of time, but this is a record that’s within modern players’ reach.

NASCAR: The seven Cup championships of Richard Petty, Dale Earnhardt and Jimmie Johnson

NASCAR’s current playoff format allows for enough randomness that a driver can win the title without necessarily being the year’s best driver. Joey Logano currently has three titles at age 34, which is more than Earnhardt and one fewer than Petty. If Logano wins the right handful of races at the right time, he can add a few more to that total.

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NBA: LeBron James’ 42,000-plus career points

Technically, LeBron James sets a new record every time he scores. But as for anyone who could catch him — the best bet might be Luka Dončić. James’ teammate trails him by nearly 30,000 points, but Dončić has — amazingly enough — posted the NBA’s third-leading career scoring average, behind only Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain. He would need around 15 years at a high level to catch James, but assuming he stays reasonably healthy — which is not a sure bet — Dončić could make things interesting..

Baseball: Barry Bonds’ 73 home runs in a single season

The top six single-season home run marks come from the Steroid Era, via Bonds, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa. But the current-era players are starting to put up numbers, too — 53 from Pete Alonso, 54 from Matt Olson and Shohei Ohtani, 58 and 62 from Aaron Judge. It seems possible, if not necessarily likely, that one of today’s sluggers will have a season for the ages.

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Men’s tennis: Novak Djokovic’s 24 Grand Slams

Djokovic probably ought to have 50 Grand Slams, but he had the misfortune of playing in an era with Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. His loss is the future’s gain — specifically Carlos Alcaraz, who already has four Grand Slams at the young age of 21. The usual caveats apply, but if Alcaraz can sustain his level of play — and if Djokovic doesn’t add too many more to his total — the record is within reach.

Definitely Breakable

These are the all-time records that will fall, sooner or later. There aren’t many of them left.

Formula 1: Lewis Hamilton’s 105 wins

Max Verstappen has 63 wins, 53 of which came in the last four years. F1 is a sport of runs, and while Red Bull may face headwinds in the coming years, Verstappen still appears on a trajectory that will have him passing Hamilton in the relatively near future. He may not win 15 races, as in 2022, or 19, as in 2023, but another 43 victories should be within reach … as long as Verstappen remains interested in the chase.

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NFL: Tom Brady’s 89,214 career passing yards

The more the NFL fixates on offense and the passing game, the more likely that career marks like Brady’s will fall. Aaron Rodgers is the active leader at 62,952 yards, but it’s unlikely he’ll take enough snaps over the rest of his career to catch Brady. Mahomes now stands at 32,352, and would need to play at a high level into his early 40s to catch Brady — a huge ask but not an impossible one. Add in the possibility of an 18th game soon, and the task becomes that much more attainable.