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Throughout Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, repeated and escalating warnings of the potential for a wider war have only raised fears in the Baltic states that they could be next in the crosshairs of the Kremlin.
Talk about a potential Russian invasion is "very common at parties, gatherings, lunch breaks, water cooler talk," Gabija Stasiukyne, a 32-year-old fintech professional living in Vilnius, Lithuania, told the Kyiv Independent.
"It’s everywhere. The conversation inevitably turns in the direction of — what are you going to do?"
Lithuania's government is also taking the threat seriously — the country reinstated conscription in 2015, and Vilnius in January committed to spending between 5% and 6% of its GDP on defense annually until at least 2030.
"Increasing our military capabilities and strengthening alliances is of utmost importance," Lithuania's Defense Minister Dovile Šakaliene, told the Kyiv Independent in written response.
"War won’t come tomorrow, but we are reinventing our defence in order to be ready to fight tonight. We know every step of our adversary, and are preparing accordingly."
A long history of Russian aggression
For Lithuania and the Baltic states collectively, Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 once again shone a spotlight on, and raised memories of, a long history of Moscow's imperialist ambitions.
"My great-grandfather was deported (by the Soviets during World War II) to Siberia because he was a teacher, an intelligent man," Emilija Sikorskyite, a 23-year-old English and French language teacher living in Vilnius," told the Kyiv Independent.
"He never came back. He died there."
Many Lithuanians fear being a member of NATO is not the security guarantee it once was.
Lithuania was the first Soviet republic to proclaim independence in 1990, one year before Ukraine, and joined NATO in 2004, providing the country with the security of the military alliance's collective defense clause in the event of Russian aggression.
But the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, and his increasingly hostile attitude to Europe and Ukraine have left many Lithuanians fearing that being a member of NATO is not the security guarantee it once was.
Ignas Zalieckas, a Lithuanian cultural journalist living in Germany, told the Kyiv Independent that the now infamous Oval Office showdown between Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky caused "total panic" among his friends and family back home.
"Everybody was thinking that NATO is kind of gone," he said.
Western leaders and intelligence agencies have warned of a potential large-scale war in Europe within the next five years, citing Russia's increasingly aggressive posture, and Lithuania's geography puts it directly in the firing line.
The country shares an eastern border with Russia's closest ally, Belarus, from whose territory Moscow's failed attempt to take Kyiv was launched.
And to the southwest of Lithuania lies the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, a small piece of land measuring 15,100 square kilometers that is home to the headquarters and main base of Russia's Baltic Fleet, not to mention thousands of Russian military personnel and a wide array of missiles and other weapons.
At their closest point, a mere 40 kilometers separates Kaliningrad and Belarus along a narrow piece of land called the Suwalki Gap which closely tracks the Poland-Lithuania border on the Polish side.
In the event of a war between NATO and Russia, Russian and Belarusian forces linking up across the Suwalki Gap would cut off the only land route to all three Baltic states.
"It's understandable that the Lithuanian government is worried about this," Dr Stephen Hall, lecturer in Russian and post-Soviet politics at the University of Bath, told the Kyiv Independent.
"The Baltics have a long history of being occupied by other foreign forces, particularly Russia, and a relatively short history of being independent."
In the face of Russian aggression in Ukraine, and a White House washing its hands of European security, talk of an imminent Russian invasion in Lithuania has now gone into overdrive.
'War is inevitable'
Barbora Turauskaite, a master's student and the head of communication at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University, told the Kyiv Independent that "all the political science and international relations experts talk about the possibility of war every day."
During one of her classes, a lecturer instructed them to "buy plane tickets for September because war is inevitable."
He went on to tell them that joint Russian and Belarusian military exercises scheduled for September 2025, could serve as a pretext for the build up of a Russian invasion force — just as they did before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Like Zalieckas, Turauskaite says the unpredictable nature of Trump is adding to anxiety in the country.
"We are not sleeping very well. In Lithuanian time, Trump wakes up around 4 p.m. After that, we don’t know what to expect," she said.
Lessons from Ukraine
Lithuania has been one of Kyiv's staunchest allies — in Vilnius public buses display their routes along with the phrase "Vilnius loves Ukraine," while the number of Ukrainian flags fluttering from government buildings and private balconies at times seems to compare to that of Lithuania’s tricolor flag.
This has been matched by consistent military aid, but while the weapons and aid have flowed to Ukraine, the war has had a significant impact on the attitudes and priorities of those back home.
Eimantas Cesnys, volunteer soldier from Vilnius, conducts three-day survival courses for ninth-graders, which were implemented after Russia's full-scale invasion began.
"I joined the military in 2022 or 2023 because my whole life I knew that I would go to fight if necessary," he told the Kyiv Independent.
"And when I saw what happened in Ukraine, I thought that I should be prepared."
Teodoras Grigaliūnas, a volunteer coordinator with the Lithuanian Red Cross's civil safety program in Vilnius, told the Kyiv independent he has seen an uptick in people signing up for the course which gives advice on matters such as where to find shelters, electricity, and water supplies in the event of an emergency, and how to pack an emergency "grab bag."
"At first, it wasn’t a very popular topic and it was sort of hard to get people involved," he told the Kyiv Independent.
"But I do notice a change, a spike in people's interest, especially after the Zelensky and Trump clash," he added.
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has provided a blueprint of sorts for what Lithuanians could expect in the event of a worst-case scenario, as well as the motivation to prepare as best as is possible.
Who is to gain more from a ceasefire — Russia or Ukraine?
U.S. President Donald Trump said on March 17 that he expects to hold a phone call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to discuss a U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal that Moscow has yet to agree to. Russia has declined to immediately accept the 30-day ceasefire proposal, with the
The Kyiv IndependentOleg Sukhov
'We are not prepared'
A thyroid cancer diagnosis prevented Aivaras, a 32-year-old freelance film and TV location manager, from following his younger brother into the Lithuanian military, so instead he registered for a new civil role created last year that will enforce curfews and protect infrastructure if martial law is enacted in the event of war.
"I understood that if shit hits the fan, you need to be prepared and know what you are doing," he told the Kyiv Independent, requesting not to print his surname due to fears that invading Russian forces would exact revenge on those known to have signed up to resist.
Aivaras believes war in Lithuania is likely in the next two to five years — potentially sooner, given Trump’s actions.
"I think that we are a little bit too relaxed. We are not prepared," he said. "We do not know what’s coming for us, and we are very dependent, and we think that somebody else will come and save us."
But for those with families, or those unable to sign up for the military or civil defense roles, more pressing questions with less clear answers are front and center.
In Ukraine, Russia's full-scale invasion prompted a wave of refugees to head west away from the fighting but Lithuania — only slightly larger than the U.S. state of West Virginia, this isn't a viable option, prompting many to plan where in the country would be the safest place to be.
Evacuation plans
Zalieckas has already discussed evacuation plans with his family but his mother's job as a Supreme Court judge, and his grandparents' health issues mean it's unlikely that they'll be able to leave the country.
His grandparents live in Radviliskis, an "insanely militarized" area close to a NATO airbase
"There's a dual discussion," he says. "Is it the least safe place to be or the most safe? Obviously if somebody bombs, they will bomb that place, but there are also air defense systems there."
Stasiukyne, the 32-year-old fintech professional, and her husband, Arvydas, have packed a few emergency bags with basic necessities and supplies for their two young children in case they have to flee.
They've been informed by special guides on what to do in case of an emergency that were updated and reprinted after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
But beyond packing grab bags and cutting back on expenditures so they have some emergency cash on hand, planning for a potential war with no definitive timeline or idea of what it could look like is tricky.
"You’re never going to feel ready, because you don’t know exactly what you’re trying to be ready for," Stasiukyne said.
Sikorskyitė, the 23-year-old English and French language teacher, studied in Kyiv just before the full-scale invasion and has visited friends in Ukraine several times during the war.ґ
She said her experience of spending nights in bomb shelters and speaking to Ukrainians means she is better prepared for what might happen.
"A lot of Ukrainians are saying they weren't prepared at all. We are trying to learn from people's mistakes," she said.
“Let's hope for the best and be ready for the worst.”
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