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Taurus missiles, stronger Europe — what can Ukraine hope for after German elections

The victory of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) led by Friedrich Merz was met with relief in Ukraine.

The conservative leader has long criticized the supposedly cautious Ukraine strategy of outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose government collapsed last November, triggering the snap vote.

Merz's likely coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SPD) is sure to maintain Berlin's pro-Kyiv trajectory. And with Scholz leading the SPD into the election, saying that he would not take part in the next government, the two dominant parties would have the potential to push Europe to do more for Ukraine.

Such a push would be crucial at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump seems to be sidestepping Kyiv's and Europe's interests to clinch a swift peace deal with Russia.

Underscoring this tectonic geopolitical shift, Merz has used his victory speech to call for Europe's strategic "independence" from the U.S. — a tall order amid the continent's lagging defense industry, rising populism, and unrelenting Russian threat.

Clear mandate for pro-Ukraine parties

The CDU/CSU secured first place in the elections with 28.5% of the vote, almost eight percentage points ahead of the runner-up AfD. Scholz's SPD, in turn, suffered a historic defeat, coming in third with 16.4% — its worst result since the 1880s.

The SPD's former coalition partners fared no better, with the Greens dropping to 11.6% and the centrist Free Democratic Party (FDP) getting booted from the Bundestag.

The Left party (Die Linke), which has condemned Russian aggression but opposes military aid to Ukraine, made a surprise comeback with 8.8%, while its Russian-leaning, anti-immigration splinter, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), failed to hit the 5% parliamentary threshold by a razor-thin margin of 0.03%.

Overall, despite the far-right surge, the vote ensured that moderate, pro-Ukraine parties now have enough seats to keep the Russian-friendly groups out of government.

The conservative leader has already rejected any negotiations with the AfD over its far-right agenda and pro-Moscow stance, aiming instead to hash out a coalition deal with the ostensibly "defeated" SPD by Easter.

"The world won't wait for us, it won't wait for long, drawn-out coalition negotiations," Merz said as his party colleagues were celebrating the Sunday victory.

The failure of the FDP and the BSW to hit the 5% threshold means a less fractured parliament and allows Merz to seek only a single coalition partner — the SPD — without entering into more complex three-way talks with the Greens.

"A possible triple-coalition would risk a less stable government, and that would, logically, benefit the AfD in the opposition," said Zuzana Zavadilova, a Germany researcher at the Prague-based Association for International Affairs think tank.

Speaking to the Kyiv Independent, the expert said that the decisively pro-Ukraine Greens may play the role of a "constructive opposition," standing in contrast to the Russian-friendly AfD and Ukraine-skeptic Left.

As Scholz has ruled out participating in the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition talks, the question of the next leading figure among the Social Democrats remains.

"SPD leader Lars Klingbeil is expected to be elected as the leader of the SPD parliamentary group in the German Bundestag on (Feb. 26). He is already being referred to by many as 'the new powerhouse' of the SPD," said Martin Bialecki, editor-in-chief of the journals Internationale Politik (IP) and Internationale Politik Quarterly (IPQ).

"The current defense minister, Boris Pistorius, will also play an important role," Bialecki predicts, referring to the popular politician under whom Germany stood as Ukraine's second-largest military donor.

If both Klingbeil and Pistorius "lead the SPD through much-needed reforms while being in government, this could be a net positive for Ukraine as both have been among the most hawkish in support of Kyiv," Jorn Fleck, senior director with the Europe Center at the Atlantic Council, told the Kyiv Independent.

What can Ukraine hope for from Merz?

The conservative leader and long-time party rival of ex-Chancellor Angela Merkel has come into the spotlight of Ukraine watchers months before the German elections. Merz has repeatedly lambasted Scholz for his reluctance to provide Ukraine with Taurus missiles, long-range weapons capable of hitting targets 500 kilometers (300 miles) away.

However, as Merz's future chancellorship became evident, the CDU chairman began tempering expectations. According to Fleck, Merz has toned down hawkish stances during his campaign to "avoid alienating eastern German voters."

The politician later clarified that Taurus deliveries must be coordinated with the U.S. and that the step should be taken only after long-range strikes with already provided arms prove insufficient to force Russia to talks.

This would imply that the Trump administration's opposition to strikes inside Russia and its courting of the Kremlin in the name of a quick peace deal might complicate Taurus deliveries.

But the events of the past few weeks made Merz, a lifelong Atlanticist, seemingly realize that Europe must forge its own path to ensure security for itself and Ukraine.

"My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the U.S.," Merz laid out his priorities after the elections.

"I never thought I would have to say something like this on a television program. But after Donald Trump's statements last week… it is clear that the Americans, at least this part of the Americans, this administration, are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe."

The shock turn came after Trump denounced Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky as a "dictator" and after U.S. Vice President JD Vance delivered a scathing speech against Germany and other European countries during the Munich Security Conference on Feb. 15.

Amid the uncertainty of the continued U.S. support, "Merz has clearly positioned himself. He does understand that much more is expected of Europe's largest economy and political power, especially if Washington wavers, or worse," Fleck said.

The chancellor-in-waiting has already launched talks with the SPD on 200 billion euros ($210 billion) in a special defense fund and floated the idea of nuclear sharing with France and the U.K. In light of Trump's comments, the German politician warned that NATO might not survive in its current form and that Europe should create its own alternative.

As Europe is shaping up to be Kyiv's chief advocate and fears of a possible U.S.-Russia pact grow, Merz has also stressed that Ukraine must be part of any peace talks.

But after decades of geopolitical dependence, decoupling from the U.S. is no easy feat.

"Even if Europe wants to become 'independent' of the U.S., it will take many, many years. Europe has neither the military, nor the economic, nor the technological means to stand on its own two feet," Bialecki warns.

According to Fleck, Merz's success will depend on three variables: "the economy, his own party's stance on the debt break, and his junior coalition partner's disposition."

AfD's rise

Yet, not all is sunshine in Berlin.

While it was effectively cut off from the government talks, the AfD's rise in popularity — especially in Germany's east — presents a stark warning to Ukraine.

Gathering votes on economy and immigration issues, the far-right party has advocated for rapprochement with Russia, criticizing military assistance to Ukraine while calling for the lifting of sanctions and resumption of trade with Moscow.

Suspicions that the AfD seeks to strengthen ties with autocracies like Russia and China were only reinforced after several top members came under investigation for collusion with Moscow and Beijing.

After Trump's victory in the U.S. election, the AfD gained another ally across the Atlantic.

The AfD's cause has been openly promoted by Trump's top ally, billionaire Elon Musk, who called the far-right party, whose members are suspected of Nazi sympathies, Germany's "last spark of hope."

And while Trump has congratulated the CDU/CSU on its victory, it was AfD chief Alice Weidel who received Vance in Germany after the U.S. vice president denounced the Munich Security Conference for not inviting Russian-friendly radicals to the event.

Merz made clear he sees the AfD-Trump alliance as equally concerning as the far-right party's sympathies for Russia.

"The interventions from Washington were no less dramatic and drastic and ultimately outrageous than the interventions we have seen from Moscow," he said.

Holding one-third of the parliament's seats, the AfD and the Left can still hamper Merz's efforts to ramp up defense spending. For example, they could block key funding decisions requiring two-thirds of the Bundestag's votes unless they are quickly adopted by the current outgoing parliament, Zavadilova notes.

"Clearly, the strength of the AfD, the Left, and the BSW should be a concern of all democrats. All three parrot Russian talking points and have at their core anti-American and anti-EU sentiments," Fleck said.

"Here, Merz and the next leadership will finally have to engage the German public in a frank conversation about what is at stake in Ukraine and in Europe."

Note from the author:

Hi, this is Martin Fornusek.

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