Technical Assessment: Neutral in the Intermediate-Term

Argus

•

Apr 11, 2025

Summary

While the stock market is washed out, it recently was very oversold on many timeframes and sentiment remained awful. That could be the cause of days like Wednesday, when there was a big pop. But there is still plenty to worry about when looking at the technical condition of the market. Long-term breadth is terrible and has been in the danger zone since early March. The volume of S&P 500 (SPX) stocks above their 200-day average sank to a recent low of 23%, the weakest level since the 2022 bear market (when it fell to 12%). Some 21% of S&P 100 stocks are above their 200-day, while the QQQ reading has dropped to 28%. When we look at most charts, it's hard to find a bullish, or even a neutral, chart. Sometimes, things look so bad that they eventually become good! The NYSE New High-New Lows reading crossed below its 50-day average, its first sell signal since 2022 and 2023. Even more disturbing is that New NYSE Lows recently surged over 1000 issues, or 37% of issues in the index. When this reading rises above 10%, it generally has been a bad sign for stocks. From a momentum standpoint, the weekly Coppock Curve has dropped into bearish territory and is still falling, this after tracing out a massive bearish divergence late last year. The monthly Copp