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The 5 most astounding stats behind the 100-game stretch when the Tigers have ruled MLB

  • David SchoenfieldMay 28, 2025, 07:00 AM ET

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    • Covers MLB for ESPN.com
    • Former deputy editor of Page 2
    • Been with ESPN.com since 1995

The Detroit Tigers were going nowhere on Aug. 10, 2024, headed for another losing season, which would have been their eighth in a row, and their 10th consecutive non-playoff season. They were 55-63, 10 games out of the third wild-card spot and behind five other teams in the wild-card standings. They had dealt starting pitcher Jack Flaherty at the July trade deadline, and their lineup in a 3-1 loss to the San Francisco Giants that day featured Akil Baddoo batting leadoff (hitting .125), Gio Urshela at cleanup (.605 OPS) and Bligh Madris playing first base and batting fifth (career OPS in the majors of .560). The bottom four hitters all finished the game hitting under .200.

FanGraphs pegged Detroit's playoff odds at 0.2%, which seemed generous.

The Tigers won the next day, beating the Giants 5-4. Maybe the biggest win of their season came on Aug. 15, though, when Javier Baez hit a two-out, two-run home run in the bottom of the eighth inning off tough Seattle Mariners closer Andres Munoz to lift the Tigers to a 2-1 victory. The Tigers would go on to an improbable 31-13 run to finish the season at 86-76 and capture a wild card -- one win more than Seattle -- before eventually being eliminated in the American League Division Series.

The winning has carried over into 2025 as the Tigers are 36-20, the best record in the American League. Tuesday was their 100th game since the transformation began Aug. 11, and they have the best record in the majors since that date:

Detroit Tigers: 67-33, .670
Los Angeles Dodgers: 64-36, .640
New York Mets: 62-38, .620
Philadelphia Phillies: 61-38, .616

What has led to this dominance? Let's break down some of the numbers behind Detroit's astounding turnaround over the past 100 games.


1. Tarik Skubal is 10-2 with a 2.22 ERA, 149 strikeouts and just 14 walks

The 2024 AL Cy Young winner dominated down the stretch in 2024 and has apparently raised his game to an even higher level. This season, Skubal boasts a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 92-to-7, or 13.14 K's for every walk -- which would be the best ever for a qualified pitcher:

  • Skubal, 2025: 13.14

  • Phil Hughes, 2014: 11.63

  • Bret Saberhagen, 1994: 11.00

  • Cliff Lee, 2010: 10.28

  • Curt Schilling, 2002: 9.58

Skubal shut out the Cleveland Guardians on Sunday, allowing just two hits and striking out 13, registering a game score of 96, the highest game score since Domingo German also scored a 96 in his perfect game in 2023. Skubal's final pitch: a blazing 102.6 mph fastball to strike out Gabriel Arias, the fastest strikeout pitch by a starting pitcher of the pitch-tracking era.

That pitch capped a historic performance for Skubal. Not only was it his first career complete game, but he did it throwing just 94 pitches. A shutout with fewer than 100 pitches is known as a Maddux, in honor of Hall of Famer and king of efficiency Greg Maddux (who had 13 Madduxes in his career). But Maddux never had a game quite like this one: Since pitch counts began in 1988, Skubal is the first pitcher to throw a shutout with fewer than 100 pitches and at least 13 strikeouts.

As he walked out to the mound for the ninth inning, he received a standing ovation from the home crowd chanting his name.

"Little teary-eyed out there, honestly, before the inning started," Skubal said after the game. "It was pretty cool. I just thought to myself, '12-year-old me wouldn't believe that was an opportunity to have the fan base support you the way it does and be in that moment.'"

Guardians manager Stephen Vogt called him the best pitcher in baseball. It's hard to argue with that description.


2. A major league-leading 2.78 bullpen ERA

Let's break down the Tigers' relief pitching over the past two seasons:

Start of 2024 season through Aug. 10: 4.16 ERA (20th in majors)

Aug. 11 to end of season: 2.35 ERA (second in majors)

2025: 3.31 ERA (seventh in majors)

The bullpen hasn't been quite as dominant as it was those final seven weeks of 2024, but it has been effective enough. Manager A.J. Hinch and pitching coach Chris Fetter deserve a lot of credit for mixing and matching here. Changeup specialist Tommy Kahnle, signed as a free agent, has split closer duties with Will Vest, with Kahnle recording six saves and the hard-throwing Vest locking up four wins and seven saves.

This has been the result of necessity more than some master plan. Jason Foley led the team with 28 saves in 2024 but was sent down to Triple-A to begin this season after struggling in spring training. In mid-April, Foley talked to the Detroit News about his shock and frustration in getting sent down, but after allowing one hit over 6⅔ scoreless innings in five games for Toledo, Foley was placed on the injured list before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery earlier this month.

This could be an area in which the Tigers eventually look to add some depth. Kahnle has succeeded in throwing changeups 84% of the time but also hasn't pitched 50 innings in a season since 2019. Beau Brieske had a 3.18 ERA a season ago as a reliever but is at 5.29 in 2025 with just 12 strikeouts in 17 innings. Overall, the pen ranks just 22nd in the majors in strikeout rate, so it is more of a pitch-to-contact pen.


3. A .726 OPS that ranks top 10 in the majors

Let's break this down into the same three splits:

Start of 2024 season through Aug. 10: .674 OPS (27th in majors, 4.12 runs per game)

Aug. 11 to end of season: .714 OPS (13th in majors, 4.45 runs per game)

2025: .736 OPS (eighth in majors, 5.07 runs per game)

For the first four-plus months of 2024, the Detroit offense was bad -- much like it had been for each season since 2017. In those years, the Tigers ranked 10th or worse in the AL in runs, consistently ranking near the bottom in both on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The offense perked up down the hot stretch to finish 2024 but has been even better this season -- Detroit last averaged at least 5.0 runs per game for an entire season in 2008.

The Tigers have also improved their OBP from .300 last season to .325 so far in 2025. Two keys here: Free agent Gleyber Torres and 2020 No. 1 pick Spencer Torkelson. Torres, signed to a one-year, $15 million contract, has a .380 OBP, well above his career mark of .334 entering the season. There's reason to believe he might keep this going as he ranks in the 99th percentile in chase rate, continuing a two-year improvement from a 25.9% chase rate in 2023 to 21.4% in 2024 to 16.0% in 2025. That has helped him to more walks than strikeouts and a solid .277 average.

Torkelson, meanwhile, is hitting .238/.351/.513 with 13 home runs and 40 RBIs -- a big improvement from last year's .219/.295/.374 line that led to a two-month demotion to Triple-A. He hit 31 home runs in 2023, so he has produced power numbers before, but this time he's doing it with fewer strikeouts and more walks. His timing has been better, especially as he has pulled more balls in the air (and fewer on the ground). His defensive metrics are also much improved. So far, this is a much better player than we saw even in 2023, let alone 2024.


4. Javier Baez is hitting .280/.315/.459 in 2025

Hinch has done a terrific job of mixing up his lineups, especially since Matt Vierling, who was second to Riley Greene in WAR among position players in 2024, just returned for his first action of 2025. The Tigers have also been without outfielders Parker Meadows and Wenceel Perez all season. With Vierling and Meadows both injured, they were left without a center fielder. The initial plan featured light-hitting infielder Ryan Kreidler plus a little Greene, but Kreidler didn't hit and Greene is best suited for a corner position.

So the Tigers got creative -- with Baez, of all players. Despite that key home run against the Mariners, Baez was one of the worst players in the majors in 2024, hitting .184/.221/.294 with minus-1.1 WAR. They made their late run last year mostly without Baez, who played his last game on Aug. 22. With three years and $73 million left on his contract and the Tigers looking to give the shortstop job to rookie Trey Sweeney, they appeared stuck with one utility infielder on an expensive contract.

After working out in center field in spring training, Baez got his first start there April 22.

"One of the things that Javy has always been invested in is winning," Hinch said at the time. "And he asked what he needed to do to help this team win. You can go to adjustments at the plate, play clean defense, the baserunning that he brings. But the reality is, the biggest message was: We're going to need you at multiple positions. And he was all-in, and I think he's taken it in stride because he saw that our team was winning."

Baez's offense had gone downhill in his three seasons with the Tigers, so he's finally producing at the plate for the first time since 2021. His defense in center has been more than acceptable. Can he keep it going? Probably not. He's the same ultra-aggressive hitter, with a chase rate that's still over 40%. His hard-hit rates remain well below where they were during his best seasons with the Chicago Cubs. Meadows has just started a rehab assignment and will likely take over in center when he returns, but Baez has at least shown he can help out as a utility player.

Throw in Vierling -- another player who can play all over the field -- and suddenly Detroit's lineup is not only versatile, but deep from one to nine with a good bench.


5. Casey Mize and Jackson Jobe are a combined 10-2 with a 3.23 ERA in 2025

The continued success of Mize and Jobe might be the key to whether the Tigers run away in the AL Central and keep this win pace going over 162 games. Mize is 6-1 with a 2.45 ERA but has a 3.90 FIP, as he has allowed a .215 average and .255 OBP despite averaging a below-average 7.7 K's per nine innings. Jobe is 4-1 with a 4.03 ERA but a 5.02 FIP as he has a poor 35-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Despite the difference between their ERA and FIP, there is reason to believe in both pitchers. In Mize's case, he throws strikes (with just 10 walks in nine starts), and his expected stats show a .208 average and .369 slugging percentage, almost a perfect match for his actual results -- so he has done a good job of limiting hard contact and inducing an above-average groundball rate.

For Jobe, it's all about projection improvement. We've seen that in his past three starts, as the highly rated rookie starter induced a few more swings and misses --14, 11 and 11, respectively, after not reaching double figures in his first six starts. His changeup has been effective, giving him a nice weapon against left-handed batters. The issue is that his four-seam fastball, while averaging 96.6 mph, doesn't miss a lot of bats. Since he doesn't get much extension in his delivery, his "effective" velocity is just 93.0 mph, so it plays down a bit despite a fairly high spin rate (81st percentile). Bottom line: He's nine starts into his career and has shown the potential that made him a top prospect.

And the bottom line for the Tigers overall? They're clearly for real, with improved offensive depth, a dominant No. 1 starter and a top manager who knows how to use his roster. Detroit also has a strong farm system -- No. 3 on ESPN's preseason ranking -- that will allow it to be one of the teams most likely to add significant help at the trade deadline.

The Tigers haven't won 100 games since 1984, which happens to be the last time they won the World Series. This team has the roster to make you believe both of those things could happen again in 2025.

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