The fight to replace Ron DeSantis in Florida is on, marked by jockeying with Trump

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is not leaving office for almost two years, but the fight to replace him has already sparked intense jockeying among Republicans — and set up a proxy battle between DeSantis and President Donald Trump.

Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., was the first big-name Republican to enter the race, but the open governorship is almost certain to draw in additional well-financed primary opposition. Increasingly, it appears that opposition could come from one of the state’s best-known Republicans, in both reputation and last name: Casey DeSantis.

The state’s high-profile first lady has already said she is considering a run to replace her husband, starting a round of behind-the-scenes intrigue as DeSantis’ political machine tries to slow the ascent of Donalds, who quickly picked up Trump's endorsement on the heels of Trump's 13-point win in Florida last year.

According to a dozen veteran Florida and national Republicans interviewed by NBC News, the effort to tear down Donalds’ early front-runner status has included quiet calls to a list of big Republican donors who have already endorsed Donalds, as well as direct appeals to Trump in a recent face-to-face meeting with the DeSantises. Some DeSantis supporters say the ultimate goal is to either keep Trump from engaging further in the race or to get him to take the rare step of issuing a dual endorsement, something the president has done in the past.

“It’s the big question hanging over all this right now,” a longtime Florida GOP fundraiser said of the conversations around Casey DeSantis. “Will she, or won’t she? For now, it’s really the only question that matters.”

The early campaign launch and flex of support from Donalds, a top Trump congressional ally, cemented his status as the perceived front-runner in the Republican primary. But it also spurred more aggressive engagement from the DeSantis team, including a direct appeal to Trump.

Last weekend, Ron and Casey DeSantis had breakfast with Trump at his West Palm Beach golf course, a trip that also included a round of golf — and a lobbying effort focused on the 2026 governor's race.

While with the president, the Florida governor and his wife tried to sway Trump to not engage in the race beyond his show of support for Donalds, to allow the race to settle and give Casey DeSantis time to formally make a decision about her political future.

A DeSantis supporter familiar with the meeting said Trump told Ron and Casey that he was “caught off guard” by the fact that Casey was considering a run, and he would have considered holding off an endorsement had he known. But top Trump advisers challenged that account. Though the meeting was friendly, they say that Trump knew what he was doing when he endorsed Donalds, and they say the president stands by the decision and will likely engage in the race beyond his initial Truth Social endorsement.

“The president doesn’t lose. The president is loyal,” one Trump adviser said. “Once he endorses someone, he wants to see it through. Of all people, Ron DeSantis knows that.”

Another said the president remained “noncommittal” to the DeSantises' political pitch.

DeSantis advisers remain hopeful that they can, at the very least, keep Trump on the sidelines for now. They have increasingly been talking about the idea that Trump could also issue a dual endorsement, something Trump has done in the past when faced with competing political imperatives, including in a 2024 Arizona House race and the 2022 Missouri Senate race.

“He has done it before, and I think he likes Casey,” said a veteran Florida Republican operative who would support Casey DeSantis’ bid if she runs. “I think it would be an early best-case scenario.”

Trump backed Ron DeSantis’ successful underdog bid for governor in 2018, and the two have enjoyed an on-again, off-again political relationship since. They were close political allies for years after the endorsement before openly feuding during the 2024 presidential race. Trump and his team often view things in black and white, and DeSantis challenging Trump was seen as political betrayal after Trump helped make DeSantis governor.

“Can Ron DeSantis afford to betray Donald Trump again?” a national Republican operative supportive of Donalds said. “That’s what I would be thinking about.”

Those opposed to Donalds have noted that he has never faced a serious race and therefore hasn't gone through significant public vetting as a political candidate. They point to some public reports that, among other things, Donalds was formerly a registered Democrat and that he has faced criminal charges in the past — marijuana possession with intent to distribute and bribery — that were later dismissed or expunged, according to the The News-Press in Fort Myers.

“I’m not sure he’s ready for what’s coming,” a DeSantis-aligned Republican operative said. “I don’t think he will be able to withstand the onslaught when a huge spotlight is put on his past.”

Beyond the push to secure Trump’s key political support, there has also been a quiet fight for major donors, many of whom have already pledged public support for Donalds.

Last month, Donalds released the names of dozens of big-name GOP supporters, including tech billionaire (and Trump White House adviser) David Sacks; major Republican donor Dick Uihlein; and Steve Witkoff, who currently serves as Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East. Trump used Truth Social to amplify the list of Donalds’ supporters.

Several of the names on the list were past political supporters and donors of Ron DeSantis, who still speaks frequently with many of them. In recent weeks, the governor has called some of them to point out that Casey DeSantis is giving serious thought to a campaign, seeking to have them either reconsider their support or at least freeze giving money for now to Donalds, according to three sources familiar with the calls.

Donalds’ early fundraising numbers could play a big role in determining whether other viable Republicans enter the race.

“His [Donalds'] first-quarter fundraising number will be a huge signal, and everyone knows that,” a national Republican operative not yet involved in the race said. “If he posts a huge early number, I’m not sure how anyone can see a real path forward against him.”

Casey DeSantis is among the best-known first ladies in state history. She has been a prominent part of her husband’s administration and is extremely well liked by Florida Republicans.

A University of North Florida poll released last month had Casey DeSantis with a 57% approval rating among Florida Republicans, while the lesser-known Donalds was at 27%. Others included in the poll and considered potential Republican candidates include former Rep. Matt Gaetz (33% favorable rating) and state Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson (7% favorable). None but Gaetz had any significant unfavorable rating among Republicans at this point.

Gaetz is the only other major Republican who said he is considering a run for governor, which was first reported by the Tampa Bay Times.

“She likely enjoys some favorability by association as Florida’s first lady,” said Michael Binder, director of the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab. “But most of these potential candidates suffer from a lack of recognition, some suffering more than others.”

“That said, I expect we’ll see a few of them become household names by the time the August 2026 primary rolls around,” he added.

The poll found that 28% of Republicans had never heard of Casey DeSantis, while 60% said the same for Donalds.

Shadow primary

Ron DeSantis already came out swinging late last month when addressing Donalds’ bid for governor, saying that he is a creature of Washington, not Florida, and has not delivered victories for the state in Washington.

“The reality is we’ve achieved victories in Florida,” he said during a late February news conference. “I think people look at it and say you’ve got a guy like Byron, he just hasn’t been a part of any of the victories that we’ve had here over the left over these last years.”

“He’s just not been a part of it,” Ron DeSantis added. “He’s been in other states campaigning doing that and that’s fine, but OK, then deliver results up there.”

Since that time, the governor has not directly attacked Donalds, but he has hyped up Casey DeSantis on several occasions, framing her as the needed heir to his legacy who can continue the gains made by Republicans in Florida during his two terms.

Casey DeSantis has not committed to running, but has toyed with the idea when asked.

“When you come to a fork in the road, take it,” she said last month, borrowing a cryptic turn of phrase from baseball legend Yogi Berra.

Donalds has not yet taken the bait. In public comments, he said he is “very happy” with what Ron DeSantis has done as governor, and he has defended his own record, which includes four years in the Florida Legislature.

"Byron Donalds is a proven conservative fighter and that is why he has the endorsement of President Donald J. Trump," Donalds spokeswoman Danielle Alvarez said. "His time in the Florida Legislature, Congress, and campaigning with President Trump to retire Joe Biden and save our great nation proves that he has the track record and experience to build off of the success of Governors Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis to keep Florida great."

As Republicans stake out the Florida battle lines ahead of 2026, many in the state continue to believe that only one thing will truly matter when the dust settles: Trump.

“Gov. DeSantis has done a tremendous job for the state, but he of all people should understand the Trump endorsement,” said Stephen Lawson, now a Georgia-based Republican operative who worked in the past for both DeSantis and former Florida Gov. Rick Scott, who is now a U.S. senator. “Byron is a fighter, a winner and a proven conservative committed to carrying out President Trump’s agenda, three things the president values above all else.”

“He will be the nominee, and the next governor,” he added. “The sooner everyone comes to that realization, the better for the party and the state.”

This article was originally published on NBCNews.com