The most likely March Madness first-round upsets, according to Grok

March Madness is here, and so is Grok to help you fill out your bracket.

If you are reading this, your bracket is due very shortly, and it's very likely that you are sweating which upsets are going to happen.

A Google search tells us that the odds of a perfect bracket are around 1 in 147.5 quintillion. So, in all likelihood, not even AI could do it.

But, with the knowledge it has, we asked Grok the most likely first-round upsets were, and it gave us a decent list. Grok listed three No. 12 seeds, a pair of 11s and 13s and even a 14 seed to watch out for.

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The "Match Madness" logo during a First Four practice at UD Arena. (Rick Osentoski/Imagn Images)

Grok listed five likely scenarios and three other "candidates. Here they are:

Grok's Honorable Mentions

No. 14 Troy over No. 3 Kentucky

Kentucky, as a No. 2 seed in 2022, fell to No. 15 St. Peter's, which advanced to the Elite 8.

Troy has a fairly decent defense, ranking 65th in takeaways and 27th in points allowed per game against an injury-riddled Wildcats squad.

No. 11 Utah State over No. 6 UCLA

Grok points out Utah State's pace as a culprit for the Bruins. Utah State ranks 52nd in possession length on offense and 361st on defense.

No. 13 High Point over No. 4 Purdue

The Boilermakers have been down this road before, falling to No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson as the No. 1 seed two years ago. Apparently, High Point isn't an ideal matchup, because it's won 14 straight games and ranks seventh in true shooting percentage.

The High Point Panthers pose for a photo during a first-round practice session at Amica Mutual Pavilion.  (Gregory Fisher/Imagn Images)

Grok's Predictions

No. 11 Drake over No. 6 Missouri

Grok says this is a "prime upset candidate due to Drake's consistency and Missouri's potential vulnerabilities." Good point. Drake is 30-3 and its 59.7 points allowed per game ranks second in the nation behind only No. 2 Houston. Missouri averages 73.8 points allowed and is middle of the pack in free-throw shooting. 

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However, the Tigers shoot 37.0% from three, and the infamous KenPom ratings do not favor Drake, which is the lowest 11th seed (58th). Mizzou ranks 15th in KenPom, meaning it is underranked bracket-wise (and Drake is severely overranked).

No. 12 UC San Diego over No. 5 Michigan

This is a dream matchup, according to Grok, for the 12th seed. Grok pointed out that UC San Diego ranks sixth in the country in forced turnovers and fourth in turning the ball over. Out of 364 schools, Michigan ranked 340th in turnovers. Michigan also ranks 195th in 3-point percentage (33.4), while UCSD ranks 57th (36.5%).

As for KenPom, Michigan ranks 25th, while UCSDS is just 13 spots lower; Michigan would be overrated, while UC San Diego is underranked.

California Golden Bears guard Jovan Blacksher dribbles during a game against the San Diego State Aztecs in the San Jose Tip-Off Dec. 21, 2024, at SAP Center in San Jose, Calif. (Trinity Machan/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

No. 12 Liberty over Oregon

Grok pointed out Liberty's true shooting percentage, which ranks sixth in the country. Liberty ranks fifth in 3-point percentage against Oregon's 171st. Liberty ranks 348th in free-throw percentage, while Oregon is 49th.

No. 12 seeds are 55-101 in the first round, but at least one No. 12 seed has won a Round of 64 game in 33 of the last 39 tournaments.

No. 13 Yale over No. 4 Texas A&M

Now the fun begins. At least one No. 13 seed has made it to the Round of 32 in 28 of the last 39 tournaments, so this may not be the biggest surprise.

Yale upset No. 4 Auburn last year, and the Aggies are 2-5 in their last seven games. So, maybe we could see history repeat itself. Yale also scores 81.4 points per game, which ranks 23rd in the country. The Aggies also rank 317th in effective field-goal percentage.

Yale Bulldogs players head coach James Jones pose for a photo with the championship trophy and March Madness ticket after the Ivy League Tournament championship game against the Cornell Big Red March 16, 2025, at the Pizzitola Sports Center in Providence, R.I. (Erica Denhoff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis

Before we get into Grok's analysis, it should be noted that Colorado State actually ranks ahead of Memphis in KenPom ratings, and Vegas actually has the "underdog" as a 2.5-point favorite.

Grok points out that Memphis has some injury concerns and several bad losses against Quad 3 teams this season.