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These states are the most reliant on global trade

As the U.S. grapples with shifting trade policies and new tariffs, a closer look at state economies reveals sharp differences in how reliant they are on global commerce.

According to a new report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), some states thrive on exported goods, while others lean heavily on imports, and a few stand out as both major buyers and sellers in the global market.

“Even though trade policies are made in Washington, their effects are felt locally,” said Nadia Evangelou, a NAR senior economist and director of real estate research. “Some states have built their entire economies around international trade.”

The analysis compares each state’s trade activity — exports and imports — to its gross domestic product (GDP), highlighting the outsized role of global commerce in certain regions.

Export leaders in energy, autos and aerospace

Louisiana tops the nation for export intensity, with 26.5% of its GDP tied to goods sold overseas. Its robust energy and chemical sectors ship billions of dollars in crude oil and refined petroleum products through its Gulf Coast ports.

China, Mexico, and the Netherlands each import more than $5 billion in goods from Louisiana.

Texas, another export heavyweight, has 16.8% of its GDP tied to exports, including oil, gas and technology products. With massive infrastructure and a border shared with Mexico, Texas exports more than $30 billion each to Mexico, Canada and the Netherlands.

Kentucky ranks third at 16.3%, a figure driven by its strong auto and aerospace manufacturing sectors. Companies like Toyota and GE Aviation anchor this export strength, with major markets in Canada, France and the United Kingdom.

Other high-export states include Indiana, South Carolina, Oregon and Michigan — each with thriving industries such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.

Meanwhile, large economies like New York, Florida and California have relatively low export-to-GDP ratios that hover around 4% due to their service-heavy economies centered on finance, entertainment and tourism.

Manufacturing states dominate imports

On the import side, Kentucky leads the way as imports account for 32.3% of its GDP, reflecting deep global integration in auto and pharmaceutical supply chains. Japan, Mexico and Taiwan rank among its top trade partners.

Michigan and Indiana also rely heavily on imports — 24.5% and 20.2% of their GDPs, respectively — as essential parts for auto manufacturing are sourced globally. Tennessee and Georgia — which serve as major distribution hubs for goods arriving at Southeastern ports — follow closely behind.

“States like Michigan and Kentucky are deeply embedded in global supply chains,” Evangelou said. “When overseas factories shut down or tariffs spike, these states feel the shock almost immediately.”

In contrast, rural states such as South Dakota, Nebraska and Wyoming have minimal import activity that reflects more self-contained economies.

Effects on housing market growth

States like Kentucky, Texas, Indiana and South Carolina appear at the top of the lists for import and export reliance. Their economies are highly responsive to global supply chain shifts, and they benefit from international demand but are vulnerable to global disruptions.

“These states are the most exposed to trade policy volatility,” Evangelou noted. “A strong global economy helps them grow fast, but any hiccup — like new tariffs — can hurt just as quickly.”

Interestingly, being trade-reliant doesn’t always translate into faster job or housing market growth, according to NAR.

Since the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) took effect in 1994, states that are less dependent on trade — where exports account for less than 7% of GDP — have outpaced high-trade states in job creation.

Low-trade states saw average job growth of 39% over the past three decades, compared to 32% in high-trade states. Nevada, Utah and Arizona all more than doubled their job bases, despite having relatively modest trade footprints.

Texas was the only highly trade-reliant state to crack the top 10 in job growth, adding 81% more jobs during this period.

A similar pattern holds in real estate. Low-trade states posted a 291% increase in home prices since 1994, outpacing the 237% increase in high-trade states.

Florida (+406%), Washington (+379%), and Colorado (+377%) were among the leading states for home-price appreciation. These are states that grew through tech, services and domestic migration rather than export-oriented manufacturing.

“Trade hubs like Houston and Charleston definitely benefited from global commerce,” Evangelou said. “But long-term housing demand is driven more by people, not just products.”

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