Trump cuts to US weapons aid likely to hit Ukrainian civilians before front line

President Donald Trump’s freeze on weapons is alarming Ukrainians, who look to U.S. air defense to stave off the worst of Russia's missile attacks.

A White House representative on March 3 announced a “pause” on U.S. weapons aid to Ukraine following an ugly encounter between Trump, his Vice President JD Vance, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office last week.

The directive is reportedly immediate and affects $1 billion in weapons aid, including what’s already in transit, mostly through Poland.

The details of what weapons exactly are affected by the decision are not entirely clear. Most U.S. shipments of lethal weapons and artillery to Ukraine have already been delivered. A number of U.S. vehicles remain under repair in Europe, but shipments have already slowed down radically in recent months, and Ukraine has moved on from U.S. dependence.

For much of the weaponry that Ukraine needs to continue fighting, Europe could stand in for U.S. weapons, especially given the new political will to rearm the EU. But for air defense that protects Ukrainian cities from deadly Russian aerial attacks, nobody can replace the U.S.

“I think it will be sorely unpleasant, but that’s not to say that this is stuff without which we’ll lose the war tomorrow,” says Serhiy, a drone pilot stationed in Kharkiv whose last name is not being disclosed for security reasons.

“But the situation in the rear will be noticeably worse since the big air defense covers the cities.”

Air defense helps protect Ukraine’s local weapons production. It also keeps Russia from hitting power plants and civilian homes at will.

“It’ll be harsh times, but we’ll handle it,” says another soldier by the callsign of ‘Artem,’ whose real name is not being disclosed. “It means more pressure on the cities and civilians.”

Civilians leave the site after a Russian ballistic missile hit the city center in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Dec. 20, 2024. (Vlada Liberova/Libkos/Getty Images)

Per the State Department, the Biden administration oversaw the delivery of three Patriot and 12 NASAM air defense systems after the start of the full-scale war, along with a slew of other cheaper surface-to-air missiles and anti-drone weaponry.

The Patriot system, in particular, is the only viable defense against Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missiles. The U.S. alone makes it, and can stop any deliveries from other countries who already have them.

“Securing a supply of Patriot missiles is our vulnerable spot,” Dmytro Zhmailo, a Ukrainian military analyst, told the Kyiv Independent.

“Our mobile groups are demonstrating high efficiency with our, roughly speaking, small arms” in shooting down drones, Zhmailo said. “But Russian ballistic missiles, especially those that reach our cities within minutes, are still being intercepted by Patriot systems.”

Given stockpiling and replacement sourcing, Ukrainian officials are much more confident in their abilities on the front line than in aerial defense.

Zelensky took to Twitter on March 4 calling on Trump to make a deal in which “the first stages could be the release of prisoners and truce in the sky — ban on missiles, long-ranged drones, bombs on energy and other civilian infrastructure — and truce in the sea immediately, if Russia will do the same.”

Some observers are not so optimistic about Ukraine's capabilities on the front but still consider the military has months of stock.

“I would say that the impact of the U.S. suspension of military aid will be noticeable at the front in a month or two at the latest,” estimated Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow at the London-based Royal United Services Institute.

“A suspension of intelligence cooperation and/or a decision to turn off Starlink services would have much more immediate and serious military effects.” It’s a threat that has been reported on previously but later denied by Elon Musk, the owner of company SpaceX that makes Starlink satellites.

Patriot launcher modules pictured in a open field on Feb. 18, 2023 in Zamosc, Poland. (Omar Marques/Getty Images)

U.S. intelligence on Russian movements, including the flow of information on missile launches and targeting of military sites, would also be tough to replicate.

A source told CNN that the U.S. will continue to share intelligence with Ukraine despite Trump's decision, but whether that could change in the future is unclear. Trump's relationship with intelligence agencies is known to be frosty.

The pause has, however, yet to graduate to a full stop. House Speaker Republican Mike Johnson called it “temporary” while speaking in D.C. on March 4.

The pause appears to be mostly political pressure from Trump, who is eager to force Zelensky to make concessions in pursuit of a peace deal. But the Ukrainian president has continued to push for a deal that contains firm security guarantees for Ukraine in the event Russia launches a future attack.

Trump is consequently playing off a potential rather than actual impact of a sudden cut in weapons shipment, says Ron Farkas, who runs logistics for weapons systems, including the F-16 through Poland.

“I would argue there hasn’t been equipment coming in for some time. They’re talking about cutting things that aren’t happening. Everyone’s out of stuff,”  Farkas told the Kyiv Independent. “I’m not saying that there’s not deliveries coming into Ukraine, I’m just saying it’s a slow trickle.”

“If things were ending, I’d start getting CVs in my inbox. I have not received a single stop work-order,” says Farkas, comparing the cuts to USAID last month.

The U.S. defense contractors looking to sell their weapons also have more weight over the current administration and Republicans in Congress. “I find it very difficult to believe that they’ll come in and cut Lockheed Martin contracts or cut Boeing contracts. Or (Musk’s) Starlink contracts,” Farkas said.

Representatives for the U.S. State Department in Ukraine and for Ukrainian air defense declined to comment. The U.S. and Ukrainian Defense Departments did not return requests for comment.