Trump says falling oil prices mean Russia 'wants to settle' a peace deal in Ukraine

U.S. President Donald Trump said on May 5 that Russia has grown more willing to negotiate an end to its war against Ukraine following a sharp decline in oil prices.

"I think Russia, with the price of oil right now, oil has gone down, we are in a good position to settle, they want to settle. Ukraine wants to settle," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.

Oil and gas revenues accounted for nearly 30% of Russia's budget in January and February, according to government data cited by Bloomberg.

The roughly $15-per-barrel drop since the start of the year has strained the Kremlin's finances, already burdened by soaring military expenditures in early 2025.

According to Reuters, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed on May 3 to a large production increase in June, further pressuring prices.

Despite Western sanctions and price caps aimed at curbing Moscow's oil revenues, energy exports remain a crucial funding source for Russia's war effort.

Trump acknowledged that "we've come a long way" in negotiations and suggested a breakthrough could be imminent, adding, "Hopefully it will."

Since early March, Ukraine has signaled readiness for a full 30-day ceasefire if Russia agrees to reciprocal terms. Moscow has refused, demanding extraordinary concessions, including a halt to all foreign military aid to Ukraine.

Trump has threatened tariffs and sanctions against Russia multiple times, but has not imposed concrete measures since taking office. Shortly after his inauguration, he warned Moscow that the U.S. could "do it the easy way or the hard way."

On April 26, Trump voiced frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin's reluctance to negotiate, saying Putin might be "tapping me along" and uninterested in a deal.

Kyiv has repeatedly urged Washington to intensify economic pressure on Moscow.