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U.S. Open power rankings: Every player at Oakmont ranked Nos. 1-156

Treacherous, lightning-fast greens.

Deep, juicy rough.

A brilliant design.

There’s no doubt about it: Oakmont is going to be a beast.

The best players in the world will take on the Henry C. Fownes masterpiece for this week’s U.S. Open. It’s the 10th time Oakmont has hosted this national championship – and the first time since 2016, when Dustin Johnson took advantage of Shane Lowry’s Sunday misfortune to win his first of what is now two major titles.

If there’s ever a course to test every club in the bag, it’s Oakmont, a par-70 layout that will tip out at 7,372 yards and features poa greens, bent and poa fairways and Kentucky bluegrass rough.

“The Fownes’ were good players, and they were adamant to protect that golf course,” said Gil Hanse, who led the 2023 renovation of the course. "... It is unapologetically difficult, and that is what they wanted.”

The most noticeable changes from 2016 will be larger greens with more hole locations and more penal edges, some additional fairway width in spots to encourage more options, rebuilt bunkers that could see more balls end up closer to lips, and even a bigger church-pew bunker between Nos. 3 and 4 (about 15 yards).

And what about the trend from the 2021 U.S. Amateur, where players were driving it into adjacent fairways for better angles? About 5 inches of rough should deter most of that, along with added length on No. 11 and a later start to the 11th fairway, which will make it tough to avoid the rough if hitting it left off No. 10.

Statistically, it’s hard to go wrong with total strokes gained. But diving deeper into the metrics, look for players who hit fairways (length shouldn’t be a prerequisite, though if you’re long and straight, you’ll do well anywhere), are strong approach players, scramble well and have good speed on the greens (approach putting). Guys also always have a ton of meaningful putts, usually for par or worse, between 4-8 feet at U.S. Opens. My model also uses a fair bit of gut feelings, too.

Scottie Scheffler will be the pre-championship favorite for good reason, but what about everyone else? Let’s rank them all:

(Currently, the 156-player field is at 150 players with Matthew Jordan replacing the injured Sahith Theegala on Friday; the additions will be made Sunday evening, likely all from the alternate list.)

Nos. 1-10

1. Scottie Scheffler: Has collected three trophies in his last four starts. Leads Tour in strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach, proximity and bogey avoidance. He’s also third in rough proximity.

2. Jon Rahm: Starting to get his major groove back – T-14 at Masters, T-8 at PGA. Should be considered among the three or four best in the world off the tee, plus arguably one of the best short games as well.

3. Bryson DeChambeau: Even with frustrating iron play of late, he’s managed some great results, including a T-5 at the Masters and co-runner-up at the PGA. I could see some dialed-back version of the bomb-and-gauge style that he employed at Winged Foot working at Oakmont.

4. Keegan Bradley: Hear me out on this one! He’s essentially top 20 in several important metrics, including 17th in total driving, 12th in strokes gained approach and fourth in approach putt performance. And he’s riding back-to-back top-10s.

5. Si Woo Kim: Another name that popped insanely high on my model. Great at finding fairways and an elite short game. Plus, he was recently T-8 at the PGA.

6. Collin Morikawa: Second on Tour in driving accuracy with a top-10 approach game. He’s built to win this championship. I just wish he had some better finishes coming into this week.

7. Sepp Straka: Another great fit for Oakmont as he’s top 3 in strokes gained approach and proximity, and top 6 in rough avoidance off the tee and bogey avoidance. The MC at Quail was an anomaly, as he sandwiched that with a win at Truist and solo third at Memorial.

8. Corey Conners: He’s cracked the top 25 in 10 of his last 19 major starts. Nothing better than T-6, but with his ball-striking and his surprisingly decent speed on the greens, Conners could challenge that this week.

9. Joaquin Niemann: Also T-8 at Quail, his first-ever top-10 in a major championship. That could be just what the LIV star needs to kick the door down at Oakmont.

10. Jordan Spieth: He’s just outside the top 70 in strokes gained approach, but he’s basically top 30 in the other key areas. He’s also No. 1 in approach putting and is coming off a top-10 at the Memorial.

Nos. 11-20

11. Shane Lowry: Ranks third in strokes gained approach and proximity, and he should be able to give himself lots of looks from the fairway. He’d be ranked higher on this list if he wasn’t prone to the odd blow-up here and there. And remember his final-round 76 in 2016?

12. Daniel Berger: Top 15 in total driving and proximity. Would be top 10 on this list if not for back-to-back missed cuts.

13. Rory McIlroy: Somewhat controversial leaving Rory outside the top 10, but I’m just not feeling the attitude lately. Yes, he and Scottie are far and away the best drivers of the golf ball on Tour, but remember, this is a new driver in the bag, and McIlroy also isn’t hitting it particularly close with the irons this year. I’d go with the other big names before McIlroy this week. (I wrote this before his missed cut by miles in Canada, so this may be validated now.)

14. Patrick Cantlay: Top 10 in strokes gained approach and approach putting, and he’s nearly top 30 off the tee. This is his major, too, as he has four straight top-15s, including a T-3 last year at Pinehurst.

15. Xander Schauffele: He’s had plenty of rounds to get the stats up, and we’re still seeing him ranked outside the top 120 in strokes gained off the tee. Schauffele excels on these impossible setups, so we can’t drop him too far.

16. Robert MacIntyre: Top 25 in strokes gained off the tee and approach, plus he’s really reliable on those 4- to 8-footers that everyone will have for par. Also just hasn’t played bad in a long time.

17. Justin Thomas: Top 10 in strokes gained approach and one of the best iron players out of the rough, too. Always like JT to embrace these classic setups – he was nearly top 30 here back in 2016. I’m just concerned about the driving – outside the top 90 in strokes gained off the tee – plus he’s kind of cooled off in recent starts.

18. Bud Cauley: The first final qualifier on the list. Top 10 in total strokes gained this season with the ball-striking a huge reason for that.

19. Patrick Reed: Hard to measure strokes gained toughness, but Reed is one of the best in that category. Third at the Masters before missing the PGA cut, but he’s made seven straight U.S. Open cuts with four top-20s during that streak.

20. Tommy Fleetwood: Sneakily ranks sixth in total strokes gained this year. And he’s finished outside the top 25 just twice in his past 22 starts. That’s insane.

Nos. 21-30

21. Russell Henley: He’s really let us down in the majors with MCs at both this year. His lack of length shouldn’t be as big a deal at Oakmont, and we love that his top 12 in driving accuracy and second in proximity.

22. Harris English: Has top-12s in three of his last four starts, including a T-2 at the PGA. Also has three top-10s in his last five U.S. Open appearances.

23. J.J. Spaun: We’ve rolled with him in each of the year’s first two majors, and he’s done OK. Top 20 in total driving and fifth in strokes gained approach has him high in the model, but he gets bumped down a little until he proves it more in majors.

24. Chris Gotterup: Another qualifier. Hits it forever but struggles to find fairways, so this is risky. But he’s also top 10 in bogey avoidance and he’s posted five top-20s in his last seven starts.

25. Ben Griffin: He’s in elite form right now, just nothing statistically jumps out to say he’ll contend in a U.S. Open, especially his debut.

26. Aaron Rai: No has hit more fairways or at a higher percentage. And though he’s missed two straight cuts, he’s been solid in the major this year – T-27 at Masters, T-19 at PGA.

27. Tyrrell Hatton: Scrambling and finding fairways have kept Hatton right around the top 25 in recent U.S. Opens. That’s probably where he ends up again.

28. Taylor Pendrith: Pendy has been hot since his T-5 at Quail. He’s fifth in total driving and nearly top 30 in strokes gained approach.

29. Tony Finau: Trending similarly to last year when he was T-3 at Pinehurst. He’s turned around the iron play and his short game has been a real weapon, too. Plus, we know he can send it.

30. Brooks Koepka: Just waiting for Major Brooks to return. It’s been a while – no top-20s since the 2023 U.S. Open. He’s just not putting well.

Nos. 31-40

31. Carlos Ortiz: A win and a couple other top-10s in his last four LIV starts. He’s kind of like LIV Spieth with a worse short game.

32. Sungjae Im: Top 8 in both driving accuracy and strokes gained around the green. The big concern is he’s missed three straight U.S. Open cuts.

33. Viktor Hovland: Top 10 in strokes gained approach and nearly top 30 in total driving should have him higher, but the short game and putting speed continue to hamper him.

34. Ludvig Aberg: Was T-12 in his U.S. Open debut last year, but he’s still ranked outside the top 115 in strokes gained approach. Still, top 25 in total driving and top 15 in proximity, so a top-20 isn’t a terrible bet.

35. Michael Kim: He’s cooled bit, and it’s been because of a combination of different things. But Top 20 in strokes gained around the green and bogey avoidance, and I’ve always thought his game set up well for these classic U.S. Open tests.

36. Gary Woodland: He’s not been better than T-49 in his last eight major starts, but top 25 in total driving and proximity. The rough won’t bother him.

37. Maverick McNealy: A good bet to lead the field in strokes gained putting this week. Just needs to hit more fairways and scramble better.

38. Hideki Matsuyama: Might be the lowest I’ve ever ranked Hideki. A couple top-6s in his last three U.S. Open starts, and though I love his short game, he’s just not striking it well right now.

39. Sam Burns: Has four top-20s in his last five starts, and he’s rolling his rock right now. Different grasses at Oakmont, sure, but Burns’ T-9 last year at Pinehurst was promising. I just need to see it more.

40. Nick Taylor: He’s missed nine of his last 10 major cuts. Gulp. But he’s top 20 in a bunch of stats – driving accuracy, strokes gained approach, bogey avoidance. Get him on a course where distance isn’t necessarily king, and I like him here.

Nos. 41-50

41. Min Woo Lee: He’s simmered since winning in Houston. But there’s a lot to like if he can hit fairways. Granted, that’s a big if.

42. Ryan Gerard: Ranks 20th in total strokes gained – and that’s with a putter that’s been frustrating over recent months. T-8 at PGA should give him some major confidence, too.

43. Erik van Rooyen: Sixth in total driving, though he must hit his irons better than he did at Quail. Three straight MCs at the U.S. Open, but he was T-23 at Winged Foot in 2020.

44. Thorbjorn Olesen: Doing everything above average right now, which explains why he’s 13th in total strokes gained. His play in Canada gives me extra confidence. I’d rank him higher if his major record was better.

45. Emiliano Grillo: The iron game has really flashed of late as he’s posted four top-25s in his last six starts. Could another Argentine contend at Oakmont?

46. Brian Harman: Since his T-2 at the 2017 U.S. Open, he’s not missed a cut at this championship.

47. Akshay Bhatia: Top 25 in strokes gained approach and proximity, though outside the top 125 in total driving. Some of that is distance related. Also, his short game has been uncharacteristically poor of late. But he was T-16 at Pinehurst last year, and if he figures it out, has the game to win one of these someday.

48. Cameron Smith: Not the same guy who posted five top-10s, including a win, in a nine-major span a few years ago. Has missed three straight major cuts as he just doesn’t drive it well enough to contend.

49. Andrew Novak: Breakout year, and he’s done most of his work on the better designed courses on the Tour rota. Good short game and speed on the greens. He’ll make his first major cut this week.

50. Brian Campbell: He will rank last in the field in driving distance, but not many will find more fairways and display a better short game.

Nos. 51-60

Adam Scott
Victor Perez
Lucas Glover
Matt McCarty
Davis Thompson
J.T. Poston
Sam Stevens
Denny McCarthy
Tom Hoge
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen

Nos. 61-70

Marc Leishman
Stephan Jaeger
Nico Echavarria
Jordan Smith
Matt Wallace
Matt Fitzpatrick
Laurie Canter
Cameron Young
Jason Day
Jackson Koivun (a)

Nos. 71-80

Max Greyserman
Johnny Keefer
Mark Hubbard
Jhonattan Vegas
Thomas Detry
Wyndham Clark
Mackenzie Hughes
Rasmus Hojgaard
Davis Riley
Niklas Norgaard

Nos. 81-90

Justin Rose
Tom Kim
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Jacob Bridgeman
Ben James (a)
Frederic LaCroix
Chris Kirk
Lanto Griffin
Jose Luis Ballester
Matthew Jordan

Nos. 91-100

Byeong Hun An
Alvaro Ortiz
Nick Dunlap
Matthieu Pavon
Justin Lower
Cam Davis
Joe Highsmith
Sam Bairstow
Richard Bland
Trevor Cone

Nos. 101-110

Jacques Kruyswijk
Edoardo Molinari
Will Chandler
Dustin Johnson
Zac Blair
Maxwell Moldovan
Ryan McCormick
Kevin Velo
Scott Vincent
Trent Phillips

Nos. 111-120

Guido Migliozzi
James Nicholas
Preston Summerhays
Adam Schenk
Andrea Pavan
Phil Mickelson
Michael La Sasso (a)
Thriston Lawrence
Jackson Buchanan
Zach Bauchou

Nos. 121-130

Bryan Lee (a)
Jinichiro Kozuma
Joakim Lagergren
Justin Hastings (a)
Lance Simpson (a)
Evan Beck (a)
Matt Vogt (a)
Philip Barbaree
Riley Lewis
Tyler Weaver (a)

Nos. 131-140

Frankie Harris (a)
Brady Calkins
Zachery Pollo (a)
Cameron Tankersley (a)
Emilio Gonzalez
Harrison Ott
Noah Kent (a)
Roberto Diaz
Austen Truslow
Alistair Docherty

Nos. 141-156

Yuta Sugiura
Chandler Blanchet
Mason Howell (a)
James Hahn
George Duangmanee
Joey Herrera
George Kneiser
Justin Hicks
Grant Haefner
Trevor Gutschewski (a)

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