UFC Vegas 104 predictions, odds, full card preview: Is Marvin Vettori still a middleweight contender?

UFC Vegas 104 continues the seemingly new tradition of middleweight main events taking center stage in the UFC APEX. For the second time since 2023, Marvin Vettori and Roman Dolidze will go toe-to-toe.

Copy and paste almost everything from our UFC Vegas 103 preview introduction two weeks ago. These APEX events have become so devoid of excitement on paper that it's simply numbing at this point. When they do deliver, it's a surprise treat. How many people were asking for Vettori vs. Dolidze 2? It doesn't matter because we're getting it anyway — and with two additional rounds, baby.

Still, UFC Vegas 104 has some decent violence potential, considering the lopsided matchmaking that appears to be at play. Will we see a night of upsets? I wouldn't bet on it, but let's make our picks regardless.

Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

185 pounds: Marvin Vettori (-150) vs. Roman Dolidze (+125)

If you don't remember the first fight between Vettori and Dolidze, you're in luck (I guess?), because UFC uploaded it to its YouTube channel this week. After rewatching the bout, it's all the more baffling that we're here in 2025 with a five-round rematch.

Italy's Vettori has fought once since his unanimous decision nod over Dolidze. In June 2023, he set a middleweight record for the most significant strikes absorbed in a fight (249!) during his decision loss to Jared Cannonier. Since then, Vettori has been sidelined due to a plethora of shoulder injuries.

“I smashed my shoulder. It popped out and destroyed my rotator cuff, my labrum, and even my bicep,” Vettori said at UFC Vegas 104 media day. “It was a heavy surgery, you know. A lot of tendons were torn and messed up. Tendons take a while to heal.”

On the other hand, Dolidze lost his follow-up tilt against Nassourdine Imavov before starting his two-fight win streak with victories over Anthony Smith at light heavyweight and Kevin Holland.

Unless Vettori returns as a changed man, there's no reason to expect a fight different from the previous Dolidze encounter. That performance was enough to earn him a win, so that's not a bad thing. Ultimately, the Georgian walked Vettori down for essentially the entire 15 minutes, and looked exclusively for big hooks to take out the notoriously durable Vettori.

That was a stunningly poor approach from Dolidze because it's become apparent throughout Vettori's 27-fight career that he might have the hardest head in middleweight history, having never been knocked out. Additionally, Dolidze is the superior grappler, particularly with submissions, and he only attempted a single takedown despite backing Vettori up the whole fight.

Vettori already bested Dolidze with three rounds. In Dolidze's lone previous five-round affair against Imavov, he faded down the stretch and was picked apart. His early success against Vettori in round one may have deterred him from trying to wrestle, so presumably he'll change that aspect of his game plan, but Vettori still has a solid 69% takedown defense in the UFC.

How this rematch plays out depends mainly on the speculation surrounding Vettori's recovery and layoff. But based on what we know and have seen, I've got to take him in this one.

Pick: Vettori

170 pounds: Chidi Njoukuani (+155) vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (-190)

I've always had a soft spot for Chidi Njoukurani and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. Hence, this co-main event is like seeing my two favorite distant (very distant) cousins duke it out to maintain relevancy.

Before his last fight against Zach Scroggin, Zaleski dos Santos started to get counted out by the oddsmakers, likely because he's nearing 40 years old. Regardless, "Capoeira" is still as dynamic a striker as welterweight has to offer. His speed may not be what it once was, but he can still whip a wheel kick with the best of them and still packs a wallop in his punches. For a guy so willing to engage in striking wars, you would think the Brazilian might have more knockout losses than he does, but somehow there's still only one on his resume as he enters this 35th career contest.

Njoukuani, 36, is a huge welterweight, and he's undefeated in his two fights since returning to the weight class one year ago. His wins over Rhys McKee and Jared Gooden were fine. He got the job done, leaning on his long, large frame to neutralize his opponents. Unfortunately for him, neither of those guys possesses the arsenal and technical prowess of "EZDS."

This fight deserves a sleeper label because it might be awkwardly absurd in the best way possible. It's a shame they won't be presented in front of a packed arena crowd. As for the pick, it feels like more tread is left on Zaleski dos Santos' tires than people realize.

Pick: Zaleski dos Santos

155 pounds: Alexander Hernandez (-210) vs. Kurt Holobaugh (+170)

Of the main card fights at UFC Vegas 104, this is the fight you shouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole. I'll say it outright: I'm taking Alexander Hernandez, but couldn't be any less confident in the choice.

Once an incredibly bright prospect on the rise, Hernandez has been unfathomably inconsistent since Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone put him in his place in January 2019. Wins don't age much better at lightweight than his first two UFC wins: a knockout of Beneil Dariush and a unanimous decision over Olivier Aubin-Mercier. The Hernandez from those performances is long gone, and he hasn't put together a winning streak in his 12 fights since.

Hernandez, 32, played around with a brief featherweight stint before returning to lightweight in his last fight — a split-decision win against Austin Hubbard. If you believe in MMA math, that should result in a Kurt Holobaugh victory, since he submitted Hubbard via a second-round triangle choke when they fought in The Ultimate Fighter 31 finals in August 2023.

If one thing has remained consistent throughout Hernandez's stretch, it's been his willingness to lean on his wrestling. That's where he'll hold the advantage in this fight, assuming his gas tank holds, which I expect it to. Holobaugh is often a finisher, but his willingness to go for the kill is also sometimes his demise. Again, how confident am I that Hernandez doesn't get caught? I'm not. The level of competition simply favors Hernandez.

Pick: Hernandez

135 pounds: Da'Mon Blackshear (-450) vs. Cody Gibson (+350)

Da'Mon Blackshear will forever be known as the "Cody Killer" once he beats Cody Gibson at UFC Vegas 104. He defeated Cody Stamann in his last time out, and when this fight was initially booked I initially thought it was an instant rematch. Thankfully for Stamann, it's not.

Blackshear is a menace on the ground, whipping out submissions left and right, including the ever-elusive but always impressive twister that he used against Jose Johnson in August 2023. Blackshear struggles when tasked with opponents who can match his size and bully him on the feet or ground. Gibson can do the latter, and he will try, but that's where he'll get caught.

In this one, anything less than a finish for Blackshear would be a stock loss.

Pick: Blackshear

205 pounds: Diyar Nurgozhay (-375) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (+300)

Diyar Nurgozhay is the fresh blood that the doctor ordered at light heavyweight. The undefeated 10-0 prospect still has much to prove, but he's off to a great start.

Against Brendson Ribeiro, Nurgozhay is primed to score a highlight-reel finish akin to Tallison Teixeira's recent UFC debut against Justin Tafa at UFC 312. The dude is a smashing machine, showing off his devastating head kick in multiple victories now, with sneaky submission skills.

Ribeiro scraped by in his last appearance, a split-decision over Caio Machado, and will hope to keep his roster spot in this one. But the odds are rightfully stacked against him.

Pick: Nugozhay

145 pounds: Choi Seung-woo (+425) vs. Kevin Vallejos (-600)

Choi Seung-woo has had a wild run in the UFC since he arrived in April 2019.

I mean this as a compliment, but he's been an excellent loser for the company. The guy loses good, and that's important. Choi brings war with him each and every time he enters the Octagon, resulting in an incredible triumph or brutal demise. Against Kevin Vallejos, he's being set up to fall into the latter category.

The 14-1 Vallejos' lone loss came against Jean Silva in his first Contender Series bout — a fight that went the distance. That's all you need to know about where the guy falls in terms of overall capability, but aside from that, he's finished all but one of his opponents. Whether on the feet or the ground, Vallejos smashes dudes. Choi is in for a rough one on Saturday night.

Pick: Vallejos

Preliminary notes

The Ryan Spann experiment remains one of the most intriguing we've seen. Flashes of brilliance don't correctly describe the now-former light heavyweight contender. At heavyweight, I understand why he's the underdog, but from a pure talent-perspective he has zero business losing to Waldo Cortes-Acosta. It's just a matter of whether or not he puts it all together upstairs.

I'd have to revisit all of the previews we've done here at Uncrowned since launch, but UFC Vegas 104 seems like the event with the most widespread odds.

Quick picks:

Ryan Spann (+145) def. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-180)

You Su-young (-625) def. AJ Cunningham (+450)

Josias Musasa (-800) def. Carlos Vera (+550)

Stephanie Luciano (-225) def. Sam Hughes (+185)

Andre Lima (-400) def. Daniel Barez (+310)

Josiane Nunes (-180) def. Priscila Cachoeira (+145)

Carli Judice (-350) def. Yuneisy Duben (+275)