Ukraine war latest: Russia plans to increase grouping in Ukraine by 150,000 troops in 2025, Ukrainian official says

Key developments on April 3:

• Russia plans to increase grouping in Ukraine by 150,000 troops in 2025, Ukrainian official says
• US defense secretary to skip Ramstein summit for the first time, media reports
• NATO assets may be used for peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, FT reports
• 'Coalition of the Willing' agrees at least one European leader should engage with Russia, Stubb says
• Czech ammunition initiative for Ukraine secures funding until September 2025, Czech FM says

The Russian military plans to increase its grouping in Ukraine by 150,000 soldiers in 2025, equivalent to around 15 motorized infantry divisions, Presidential Office Deputy Head Pavlo Palisa said on April 3, Ukrainian media outlet Suspilne reported.

"Their formation is ongoing. The Russians have no problems with recruiting personnel now. However, it should be understood that all these formations cannot be put into action at the same time," Palisa said.

This buildup comes as Russia intensifies its pressure on the front line while engaging in ceasefire consultations. According to Palisa, Moscow is not interested in peace talks except in areas concerning maritime security, where a ceasefire is more relevant to Russian interests.

Ukraine had agreed to a full 30-day ceasefire in U.S.-mediated talks in Jeddah on March 11, but Russia refused unless it included conditions restricting Ukraine's military capabilities.

Instead, Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. reached a partial ceasefire agreement protecting energy infrastructure and the Black Sea.

Since its implementation, both Ukraine and Russia have accused each other of violating the energy truce. Moscow has also linked the start of the Black Sea agreement to Western sanctions relief.

On the battlefield, Russian forces continue advancing incrementally, attempting to break through specific sections of the front, Palisa said.

He acknowledged some Russian tactical successes but said Ukraine is counterattacking and making its own gains. "If they do this, they will continue to stall (peace talks) to get time," he added.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Jan. 15 that Ukraine's military consists of 880,000 soldiers, tasked with defending the entire country against 600,000 Russian troops concentrated in different areas.

Ukraine has faced manpower shortages, particularly in infantry units, as Russia ramped up its offensive in Donetsk Oblast in the summer of 2024.

The pace of Russia's territorial gains has slowed in recent months. According to battlefield monitoring group DeepState, Russian forces captured only 133 square kilometers in March — their lowest monthly total since June 2024.

The slowdown has been attributed to winter conditions, effective Ukrainian drone strikes, and temporary exhaustion of Russian offensive potential.

Despite this, Russian troops continue their assault, particularly around Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, where fighting intensified in late March.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will not take part in the Ramstein-format meeting of Ukraine's allies next week, Defense News magazine reported on April 2, citing undisclosed official sources.

This would make the April 11 summit in Brussels, co-chaired by the U.K. and Germany, the first instance when the Pentagon's chief will be absent since the format's founding in 2022.

Hegseth's predecessor, former U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, launched the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) after the outbreak of Russia's full-scale war to coordinate assistance among some 50 of Kyiv's allies.

A U.S. official source told Defense News that Hegseth is not expected to join even virtually and that the Pentagon is unlikely to send any senior representatives to the summit.

Since taking office in January, U.S. President Donald Trump has begun scaling down U.S. presence in various international pro-Ukraine initiatives as he seeks to broker a ceasefire and a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow.

Hegseth attended the previous Ramstein summit on Feb. 12 but not as its chairman, a position held by Austin until then. His British counterpart, John Healey, presided over the summit instead.

At the previous Ramstein summit, Hegseth delivered a jarring speech to Ukraine's partners, calling the country's return to pre-2014 borders and accession to NATO "unrealistic" in a major turn from the Biden administration's rhetoric.

The comments signified the foreign policy pivot brought about by the Trump administration, which has yet to approve a single additional package of military aid to Ukraine.

Thus far, Trump has only allowed the continued flow of assistance approved by his predecessor, briefly pausing it last month to pressure Ukraine to the negotiating table.

The new U.S. leadership has also repeatedly urged Europe to boost its defense spending and increase the share of its assistance to Ukraine.

NATO assets may be used for peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, FT reports

NATO can play a key role in assisting the proposed European military mission to guarantee a peaceful settlement in Ukraine, the Financial Times (FT) reported on April 3, citing unnamed officials.

The proposal for an international peacekeeping force has gained traction recently as European nations prepare to take a more prominent role in Ukraine's defense amid the unpredictability of further American support.

NATO's command and control structures could be used to deploy a so-called "reassurance force" to Ukraine under one proposal being discussed in French-led talks with the U.K., five officials briefed on the plans and told the FT.

Under the proposal, the forces would also use the alliance's joint intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities. According to officials, this proposal is one of many options under discussion and may be subject to change before a final agreement.

Proponents of the initiative also see NATO's involvement in indirectly engaging the U.S. and gaining Washington's support.

Earlier, U.S. President Donald Trump refused to participate in any European-led mission directly, but U.S. military capabilities in Europe are integral to all NATO operations.

"If we are going to deploy assets from dozens of countries (to Ukraine), then NATO is really the only (command and control) option that we can use," said one of the officials.

On March 31, President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer discussed plans to meet in Ukraine this week with military representatives from the "coalition of the willing." Thus far, the coalition has met in other European countries or virtually.

The coalition is a group of countries that have pledged peacekeeping troops and other security guarantees for Ukraine in a potential ceasefire.

The "Coalition of the Willing" has met repeatedly to determine security guarantees and a peacekeeping force for Ukraine. Leaders of 31 nations met in Paris on March 27 at a summit for the coalition.

Several countries, including France and the U.K., which lead the coalition, have pledged to send troops to enforce a potential ceasefire.

The U.S. has been holding separate meetings for ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, most recently meeting Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia on March 25.

'Coalition of the Willing' agrees at least one European leader should engage with Russia, Stubb says

The "Coalition of the Willing" has agreed that at least one European leader should engage in dialogue with Russia, Finnish President Alexander Stubb said on April 3.

Stubb suggested that either France or the United Kingdom, as key coalition leaders, should initiate contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"In our discussion with the 'Coalition of the Willing' in Paris on Thursday (March 27), we recognized the reality that a European leader will have to reach out to Russia at some point," Stubb told reporters in Helsinki.

Currently, European leaders are not engaging in negotiations with Putin. Early in the full-scale war, French President Emmanuel Macron and later German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke with Putin, but those discussions yielded no results.

European leaders have also been excluded from recent U.S.-led ceasefire talks with Ukraine and Russia, including the latest meeting in Saudi Arabia on March 25.

The coalition, which consists of countries committed to providing security guarantees and potential peacekeeping forces for Ukraine, held a summit in Paris on March 27. France and the U.K., leading the coalition, have pledged to send troops to Ukraine to enforce a potential ceasefire.

Stubb also said on March 31 that Finland must prepare for the eventual restoration of relations with Russia. He told reporters that U.S. President Donald Trump asked him whether Putin could be trusted, to which he replied that he could not.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on April 1 that Putin was open to normalizing relations with Finland.

Finland, a staunch supporter of Ukraine, joined NATO in 2023 in response to Russia's full-scale invasion. The country shares a 1,300-kilometer (800-mile) border with Russia and has strengthened its defense ties with Western allies since the war began.

Czech ammunition initiative for Ukraine secures funding until September 2025, Czech FM says

Czechia's initiative to provide Ukraine with artillery ammunition has secured funding to continue monthly deliveries until September 2025, Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky said on April 3, Ukrainian publication European Pravda reported.

The initiative, backed by contributions from Canada, Norway, the Netherlands, Denmark, and other European countries, has significantly boosted Ukraine's artillery capabilities, Lipavsky claimed.

The minister said the effort had reduced the effectiveness of Russian artillery "by 500%" and improved the shell ratio from 1-to-10 in Russia's favor to 1-to-2.

The Kyiv Independent could not verify the claim.

In 2024, the Czech initiative supplied Ukraine with 1.5 million rounds of ammunition, including 500,000 large-caliber 155mm and 152mm shells. The initiative was launched amid Ukrainian shell shortages, largely caused by delays in U.S. military aid in 2024.

Czechia's opposition party ANO has vowed to suspend the initiative if it wins the parliamentary elections in October 2025, opposition leader Karel Havlicek said in January.

"We're not going to continue the munitions initiative. Not at all," he told the Czech media Respekt.

Prague has been a strong supporter of Ukraine, supplying military aid, leading EU efforts to secure weapons, and hosting tens of thousands of Ukrainian refugees.

Czech President Petr Pavel said on March 22 that the country was also ready to contribute troops to a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine.

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