US airlines struggle to forecast their business in worsening economic fog

By Rajesh Kumar Singh

CHICAGO (Reuters) - President Donald Trump's trade war has created the biggest uncertainty for U.S. airlines since the COVID pandemic.

With little clarity on how consumers will behave in the face of a potentially worsening economy, carriers are struggling to accurately forecast their business.

While Delta Air Lines and Frontier have withdrawn their full-year outlook, United has offered two different earnings forecasts.

"It kind of really shows a lack of conviction," said Brian Mulberry, client portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management, which holds shares of United.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the aggressive U.S. tariff policy to trigger a significant slowdown in the U.S. economy this year and next, with the probability of a U.S. recession over the coming year surging to 45%, the highest since December 2023, from 25% last month.

Since travel spending closely tracks broader economic activity, any recession is widely expected to cut airline revenue.

Carriers have traditionally relied on capacity cuts and cost management to protect their earnings in a recessionary environment. They have already started pulling those levers, but a fluid economic situation means they can ill-afford to slam the brakes hard.

The popular view in the industry is that the present uncertainty is "self-inflected" and could go away overnight if the Trump administration decided to call a truce on tariffs.

The current situation is very different from the pandemic when travel demand collapsed, forcing airlines to go into a cash preservation mode, one industry official said.

In comparison, the bookings have only softened and could bounce back if the broader economic outlook improves. As a result, airlines are wary of taking measures that could hand advantage to their rivals, the official added.

The U.S. domestic market is the best example of this caution. It is currently the softest travel market, with airlines having to stimulate demand with lower fares.

United told investors on Wednesday its domestic unit revenue, a proxy for pricing power, would be negative in the current quarter. Yet, its second-quarter capacity, or the seats available on flights, is estimated to be up 8.2% from a year ago - the sharpest growth among major carriers.

Andrew Nocella, United's chief commercial officer, said while the company planned to cut unprofitable flying, it was also going to balance market share and financial returns.

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Mixed economic indicators have only added to the industry's conundrum. U.S. retail sales and hiring grew at a much stronger-than-expected pace in March even as business and consumer confidence plunged.