Walmart forecasts sales for fiscal 2026 revenue below estimates on cautious spending

(Reuters) - Walmart on Thursday forecast sales for the fiscal year ending January 2026 below Wall Street's current estimates, signaling the world's largest retailer expects inflation-weary consumers to pull back after several quarters of solid growth.

Walmart forecast annual consolidated net sales to rise in the range of 3% to 4%, compared with analysts' expectations of 4% growth, according to data compiled by LSEG. The outlook assumes a 100 basis points impact from lapping leap year in 2024.

As one of the first major U.S. retailers to shed light on the crucial holiday quarter, Walmart's results reveal how Americans have responded to President Donald J. Trump's additional tariffs on goods made in China, and the threat of 25% tariffs on products made in Mexico and Canada.

In January, the month Trump took office, U.S. retail sales experienced their largest decline in two years, hampered by frigid temperatures, wildfires, and motor vehicle shortages.

However, Walmart appeared to remain unscathed, reporting total U.S. comparable sales growth of 4.9% in the fourth quarter, which includes November, December, and January. That surpassed analysts' estimates of a 4.15% increase, according to data compiled by LSEG.

"We have momentum driven by our low prices, a growing assortment, and an eCommerce business driven by faster delivery times," said Walmart's CEO Doug McMillon.

The company, like other retailers such Target and Best Buy, has seen persistent softness in its high-margin general merchandise business as consumers struggle to pay elevated grocery prices.

During the reported quarter, the company gained shares in general merchandise categories, including consumer electronics.

The retail giant's dominance in groceries and its ability to secure the lowest prices from suppliers have made it a popular choice for value-conscious shoppers across all income groups.

Over the past year, the Bentonville-based chain has noted that its market share gains were primarily driven by households earning more than $100,000.

These households have been significant contributors to online sales, drawn to Walmart's same-day and two-day deliveries and curbside pickup services from its 4,600 U.S. stores.

Walmart forecast adjusted earnings per share for fiscal year 2026 in the range of $2.50 to $2.60, compared with analysts' expectations of $2.76 in profit, according to data compiled by LSEG.

(Reporting by Savyata Mishra in Bengaluru and Siddharth Cavale in New York; Editing by David Gregorio)