We correctly predicted 'Anora' would win Best Picture at the Oscars. Here's what we learned from our formula.

Our first Best Picture Leaderboard correctly predicted the winner of the top prize at the 2025 Oscars: Anora. The fact that it nearly swept with five wins total was icing on the cake.

Yahoo Entertainment created a power rankings system to predict which of the 10 Best Picture nominees was most likely to win at the Academy Awards. The formula synthesized award nominations and wins, critics’ predictions and general fanfare through search interest. We then assigned scores to each movie based on these factors, and ranked the films according to which has the highest score. The Yahoo Best Picture Leaderboard was updated weekly with new predictions ahead of the show. Read more about our methodology here.

It was an unusual awards season as the controversy surrounding Emilia Pérez caused it to suffer at awards shows and in the eyes of critics, dropping its well-established lead three weeks into our ranking experiment. Films in the No. 2 to No. 7 range saw a lot of movement throughout the season, as no one movie truly dominated. See the final ranking before the Oscars here.

Though late-in-the-season momentum propelled Conclave to the No. 2 spot on our ranking, its score compared to that of Anora’s (48 to 75.7) indicated that it didn’t have as much of a shot as Best Picture. Though the model was only intended to predict Best Picture, let’s take a look at how the year’s 10 best films in the eyes of the academy fared overall at the Oscars.

1. Anora

What to know: A New York exotic dancer falls for the son of a Russian oligarch who offers her a chance at a new life, but his family tries to intervene.

Vitals: Romantic comedy drama, 2 hours and 19 minutes, rated R.

Oscar wins: 🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 (Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay and Film Editing)

What happened: People have been talking about Anora since it won top honors at the Cannes Film Festival in May. The indie movie did surprisingly well at the box office and continues to drive conversation about sex work. Though it racked up dozens of nominations from smaller awards bodies like the Gotham Awards, it didn’t take home any Golden Globes.

Still, it regained momentum and became a popular prediction for critics after winning three of the major Best Picture precursors in one weekend — the Critics Choice Awards, the Producers Guild of America Awards and the Directors Guild of America Awards. It lost at the Screen Actors Guild Awards and the British Academy of Film and Television Awards, though, so there was some doubt that it could maintain its momentum.

Writer-director Sean Baker, who’s currently living out his own Cinderella story, was part of a massive momentum shift for Anora — perhaps one of the biggest in Oscars history. The film won five out of the six Oscars it was nominated for, and Baker became the first person to win four Oscars in one night for the same movie.

How to watch: Anora is available on video on demand. It starts streaming on Hulu March 17.

2. Conclave

What to know: As a group of cardinals assemble at the Vatican to select a new pope, scandals and gossip create factions and challenge their faith and relationships.

Vitals: Mystery thriller, 2 hours, rated PG.

Oscar wins: 🏆 (Best Adapted Screenplay)

What happened: A movie about choosing a new pope might seem quiet and understated, but Conclave is surprisingly melodramatic and has ruffled a few feathers with controversy. The film had a steady presence in the awards conversation, picking up a few here and there, with significant wins at the BAFTAs and at the SAG Awards, where Anora lost.

Conclave has a surprisingly devoted fanbase, given its serious subject matter. Chatter about the real-life pope’s health concerns elevated cultural awareness of the film, at times mirroring its plot. The film received eight Oscar nods and won one.

How to watch: Conclave is streaming on Peacock.

3. Wicked

What to know: In this long-awaited Broadway musical adaptation, a magical woman who has been mistreated all her life for having green skin forms an unlikely bond with a popular student.

Vitals: Musical fantasy, 2 hours and 40 minutes, rated PG.

Oscar wins: 🏆🏆 (Best Costume Design and Best Production Design)

What happened: Wicked was the most popular Best Picture nominee this year, enchanting audiences in theaters and generating countless memes through a massive press tour. It was up for four Golden Globes but left with just one honoring its box office performance. The rest of the season followed suit with a few wins here and there.

Wicked remained the most popular movie on search throughout awards season, elevating it to a higher position than others with similar award and prediction stats. It's possible that search interest artificially inflated its chances of success, but I think the fact that our model kept it in conversation as a contender reflected popular sentiment. It might have had a leg up on its peers given that academy voters have admitted to not watching all the nominated films.

Wicked earned an impressive 10 Oscar nods, and left with two craft-related wins.

How to watch: Wicked is available on video on demand. It will begin streaming on Peacock March 21.

4. The Brutalist

What to know: The film follows a Jewish architect and Holocaust survivor who flees Hungary and travels to the United States in search of the American Dream.

Vitals: Epic historical drama, 3 hours and 34 minutes, rated R.

Oscar wins: 🏆🏆🏆 (Best Actor, Original Score, Cinematography)

What happened: It’s a massive movie in every possible way, from its heavy themes to its lengthy run time that includes an intermission to the 300 pounds of film it’s printed on, which contrasts with its meager $10 million budget. Its hugeness might have discouraged people, including academy voters, from watching it. Though The Brutalist won big at the Golden Globes and gained the favor of many critics, it lost that momentum at later awards shows like the PGAs, the DGAs and the SAG Awards, potentially due to its controversial use of AI.

It was nominated for 10 Oscars and won three.

How to watch: The Brutalist is in theaters and available on video on demand.

5. Emilia Pérez

What to know: A lawyer helps a cartel leader fake her death and undergo gender-affirming surgeries. Over the years, a higher calling and family entanglements complicate the plan.

Vitals: Spanish-language musical crime comedy, 2 hours and 12 minutes, rated R.

Oscar wins: 🏆🏆 (Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Song)

What happened: This year’s awards season’s villain was Emilia Pérez, a film festival darling that didn’t appeal as much to general audiences, despite being available on Netflix. Its unusual tone and subject matter are unlike any other film on this list — nor is its odd trajectory. It was the biggest winner at the Golden Globes, but since then, it has been memed and picked apart on social media.

Shortly after Oscar nominations were announced, a major controversy befell Emilia Pérez and Best Actress nominee Karla Sofía Gascón, who plays the title character. Several of her past X posts surfaced that many people called racist, Islamophobic and xenophobic. She then deleted her account and posted an apology on Instagram, stating that the tweets were taken out of context, denied that she is racist and seemingly implied that the controversy was part of a smear campaign against her. As critics removed the film from their predictions and the film’s awards momentum dropped, our model correctly reflected its downfall.

Still, supporting actress Zoe Saldaña continued to dominate her category at the Critics Choice Awards, the BAFTAs, the SAG Awards and the Oscars. The film earned a whopping 13 Oscar nods, but left with just two trophies.

How to watch: Emilia Pérez is streaming on Netflix.

6. A Complete Unknown

What to know: The film charts the rise of a young Bob Dylan as he skyrockets to fame and changes the course of American music.

Vitals: Biographical drama, 2 hours and 21 minutes, rated R.

Oscar wins: 0

What happened: Though the film repeatedly became a favorite among critics making predictions, it missed out on nearly every major award of the season. Star Timothée Chalamet promoted the film in fun and unconventional ways, from guest-hosting College GameDay to pulling double duty as the host and musical guest on Saturday Night Live. At the last possible moment, he had his first major win — the SAG Award for Best Actor.

The film was nominated for eight Oscars, but didn’t win any.

How to watch: A Complete Unknown is available on video on demand.

7. Dune: Part Two

What to know: Paul Atreides works with the Fremen on the desert planet of Arrakis to prevent a doomed future that only he can see.

Vitals: Science fiction epic, 2 hours and 46 minutes, rated PG-13.

Oscar wins: 🏆🏆 (Sound and Visual Effects)

What happened: The sequel to the 2021 science fiction adaptation earned a Best Picture nomination and plenty of technical nods just like the first film, but the fact that Dune: Part Two had a delayed release in March 2024 led it to slip from voters’ minds.

The massive box office hit was also critically acclaimed, but its actors and director Denis Villeneuve have been snubbed by the Golden Globes, the SAG and the DGA. It didn’t help that lead actor Timothée Chalamet has been campaigning for another film — A Complete Unknown. Still, the film’s strong search interest, second only to Wicked, kept it higher on the list than others.

It was nominated for five Oscars and won two.

How to watch: Dune: Part Two is streaming on Max.

8. The Substance

What to know: After facing a devastating blow to her career on her 50th birthday, a performer experiments with a “substance” to obtain an enhanced version of herself.

Vitals: Satirical horror, 2 hours and 21 minutes, rated R.

Oscar wins: 🏆 (Makeup and Hairstyling)

What happened: The film made a big splash at film festivals and earned accolades for writer-director Coralie Fargeat, including Golden Globe nominations for Best Director and Best Screenplay. It had a surprisingly strong run in theaters before shifting to streaming on Mubi, and came back for a limited time following its awards season success, cementing its cult status.

Moore went viral after delivering a heartfelt acceptance speech for her surprise Golden Globe win, which clearly kept the academy’s attention. She maintained frontrunner status throughout awards season, winning Best Actress at the Critics Choice Awards and the SAG Awards. At the Oscars, she was snubbed when Anora’s Mikey Madison won instead.

Horror movies have historically been overlooked by the Oscars, which meant critics didn’t pick it to win the top prize, keeping The Substance firmly at No. 8 on the Best Picture Leaderboard for the entirety of the season. The film’s five nods were a shock, so it was less surprising to see it leave with just one award.

How to watch: The Substance is streaming on Mubi.

9. I'm Still Here

What to know: The Brazilian film follows a woman and her five children after their lives change dramatically when her politician husband disappears. It’s based on Marcelo Rubens Paiva’s memoir.

Vitals: Portuguese-language political biographical drama, 2 hours and 16 minutes, rated PG-13.

Oscar wins: 🏆 (International Feature Film)

What happened: By far the most surprising nominee in the bunch, I’m Still Here clearly gained momentum after Fernanda Torres’s surprise Golden Globe win for Best Actress. It was not without controversy — footage of Torres appearing in blackface in a 2008 sketch for the Brazilian comedy show Fantastico resurfaced. She apologized, saying, “Thanks to better cultural understanding and important but incomplete achievements in this century, it’s very clear now in our country and everywhere that blackface is never acceptable.”

Before her own controversy unfolded, Emilia Pérez star Gascón accused the social media team connected with I’m Still Here of denigrating her and the film. Gascón clarified that she didn’t disparage Torres herself — that would have violated the academy’s rules.

The film’s search interest and award wins never broke the mold compared to other films, though it emerged victorious over Emilia Pérez in their shared category. I’m Still Here had three Oscar nominations and one surprise win.

How to watch: I’m Still Here is in theaters.

10. Nickel Boys

What to know: An innocent mistake shatters a Black teenager’s dreams of attending college and lands him at Nickel Academy, an abusive and segregated reformatory, where he forms a friendship with a more pessimistic student.

Vitals: Historical drama, 2 hours and 20 minutes, rated PG-13.

Oscar wins: 0

What happened: Based on a Pulitzer Prize-winning book from Colson Whitehead that was inspired by real-life horrors, Nickel Boys examines abusive reform schools — a topic that’s been top of mind given recent legislation concerning the troubled-teen industry. It’s director RaMell Ross’s first narrative feature, and his style is unlike any other — it’s shot from the point of view of its two young leads, focusing on what they see rather than their faces.

The film didn’t win any major awards — aside from a DGA Award for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in First-Time Theatrical Feature Film — which meant it was not a popular prediction for critics. Search interest was minimal, given its quiet release. Nickel Boys was up for two trophies at the Oscars but didn’t win any.

How to watch: Nickel Boys is streaming on MGM+.