What Saquon Barkley's career year and record raise means for free agent running backs

ON A SATURDAY in late July 2023, the NFL's top running backs joined a Zoom call. The call, organized by Austin Ekeler, included Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs and Christian McCaffrey. In a gallery of their peers, they aired grievances about a depressed market for players at their position and brainstormed ways to increase their value and compensation.

Barkley and Jacobs had been franchise-tagged for $10.1 million -- lowest among all offensive and defensive positions -- until their organizations applied a temporary financial band-aid to avoid a holdout with short-term deals slightly higher than the franchise tag valuation. Still, the prospect of changing league attitudes about compensating veteran running backs -- a position at which many teams view players as interchangeable because of their success in using late-round draft picks or free agents making veteran minimums -- felt bleak.

By the next offseason, though, with the New York Giants unwilling to break organizational precedent and sign their running back to a blockbuster extension, Barkley hit free agency and garnered major interest. He ultimately signed a three-year, $37.75 million contract that included $26 million guaranteed with the Philadelphia Eagles.

Eleven months after inking the deal, Barkley hoisted the Lombardi Trophy at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. The Super Bowl victory capped a season in which, including the playoffs, he broke the single-season rushing record and earned Offensive Player of the Year. On Tuesday, the Eagles rewarded him with a blockbuster two-year, $41.2 million contract that made him the highest-paid running back in league history.

But even with Barkley's accomplishments in his first year as an Eagle and subsequent payday, a free agency running back renaissance isn't necessarily imminent.

Conversations with nearly a dozen league officials revealed that while the free agent running back market appears stronger than the one that prompted the July 2023 call, the 2025 free agents aren't projected to continue the trajectory of the record-setting 2024 class. Instead, last year's financial and on-field success were the product of a "confluence of events," according to one league source.

While league executives don't expect Barkley & Co.'s success to significantly impact contracts of 2025 free agent running backs, offensive and defensive trends could increase demand at the position. But, NFL decision-makers cautioned, the market might be less robust because of a deep running back draft class.

"At the end of the day, your team has to fit whatever player it is, running back, receiver, whatever, within your structure and the confines," Buffalo Bills general manager Brandon Beane said. "And you do have to pay attention to the current market."

BARKLEY BECOMING THE highest-paid running back -- and first to be paid at least $20 million per year -- underscored a consensus opinion among league executives, coaches and agents: He is an exceptional talent, and exceptional talents create exceptions to the rule.

While Barkley's impact might not improve the value of the position as a whole, league sources said his success could lead to greater compensation for top-tier free agent running backs and in-house extension candidates.

"It's going to give pause to folks who maybe haven't invested in running backs to rethink that," one AFC talent evaluator told ESPN. "But I'm not sure it's going to move the needle so much that you see a real sea change across the entire position."

Another league source familiar with player negotiations said he doesn't foresee a massive jump in the market.

"Good players are going to get paid well," he said. "But I don't think the trend is all of a sudden to pay running backs because of Saquon."

In a class anchored by Barkley, Henry and Jacobs, the top seven 2024 free agent running backs averaged $12 million in guaranteed money, up from $7.1 million in 2023, $4.8 million in 2022 and $4.5 million in 2021.

The top 2025 free agent running backs include Aaron Jones, Najee Harris and J.K. Dobbins, who fall short of an unprecedented 2024 group that boasted four combined All-Pro nods and three rushing titles.

As Barkley rushed and hurdled his way into MVP contention, the rest of the class also outperformed recent free agent classes. In his first year with the Ravens, Henry ran for 1,921 yards and 16 touchdowns, averaging 5.9 yards per carry, while Jacobs racked up 1,329 yards and 15 touchdowns on 4.4 yards per carry, per ESPN Research.

Stacked with significant star power, the top seven free agent running backs of the 2024 class far outpaced the top seven of the previous three classes, combining for 8,868 rushing yards, 64 rushing touchdowns and 4.8 yards per carry. Five of the seven, which also included D'Andre Swift, Tony Pollard, Devin Singletary and Jones, finished among the top 12 in rush yards.

By comparison, the top seven running backs in the 2023 free agent class combined for 3,093 rush yards. Only David Montgomery (9th) finished among the league's top 30 rushers. The top seven in the 2022 class rushed for 2,433 yards. Cordarrelle Patterson (39th) ranked the highest among those seven in rushing yards. And in 2021, the same sample size combined for 2,475 rushing yards.

The 2024 class is undoubtedly an outlier, but some in the NFL believe their success as a group helps strengthen a market that lagged behind other skill positions just a couple of years ago as supply outpaced demand.

"I was just talking to an agent who had a couple running backs coming up, and I said if you'd asked me a few years ago, I wouldn't have been as optimistic," Chiefs general manager Brett Veach said. "But with the years some of the guys that signed last year had ... [and] especially when you have those unique guys that have a full skill set where they can run, catch and block, I think you'll start to see those guys coming back up to where they should be in the market."

WHILE BARKLEY AND the 2024 free agent running backs might not significantly factor into the overall positional value for the 2025 class, leaguewide schematic trends could boost running back compensation.

Though teams will always covet cannon-armed quarterbacks and game-breaking wide receivers, some organizations are shifting their focus to building stronger ground games. Team rushing averages have steadily increased in the past 10 years, including a 7 yards per game jump from 112.7 in 2023 to 119.8 in 2024.

"Everything kind of comes full circle," Veach said. "It goes in flows where it's a run league, then it's a pass league, then it gets a little bit more balanced."

And in recent years, there's been a correlation between strong run games and successful seasons. Teams that finished with the best records in 2023 and 2024 had an average league rushing yards per game ranking of ninth, and six of those teams finished in the top 10. From 2021 and 2022, however, the best teams had an average league ranking of 15th, and five teams finished in the top 10, per ESPN Research.

"These defenses today are not geared towards stopping the run the way they were a few years ago," the AFC talent evaluator said. "So there is value there to running backs."

The most valuable of those running backs, other league executives said, are versatile talents such as Barkley, McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson. As offenses shift to capitalize on the systematic weakness of defenses designed to stop passing attacks, the perception of running backs is shifting, too.

"People were not looking at [running backs] as weapons," Beane said. "I kind of look for 'em as anyone you add to your offense, what do they bring? What is their skill set? Is it a mismatched player? Saquon, McCaffrey, any of those guys, they can line up and play wide receiver. They can line up in the backfield."

Receiving yards by running backs, though, have decreased throughout the past decade.

They accounted for 14.05% of all receiving yards in 2024, marking the lowest share in more than two decades. That share has steadily decreased since the statistic was first recorded at 19.8% in 2000.

But teams still put a premium on running backs capable of contributing in multiple areas, whether as a pass catcher or in pass protection, in addition to their primary run game duties. And that versatility is a significant factor in positional valuation.

"The running back position has changed as much or more than the market," Beane said. "No longer is it 3 yards and a cloud of dust. [Some of] these guys are weapons on all three downs."

WHILE THE DEMAND for versatile running backs is undoubtedly increasing, so, too, is the supply. Instead of a flush free agent market, the bulk of the increase this season figures to come from a loaded running back draft class. The influx could well decrease the demand for veteran free agent running backs, especially ones who have significant mileage.

"It's a solid group in free agency, but it's a rare year with running backs in the draft," Seahawks general manager John Schneider said. "I can't remember this number of legit prospects at the running back position in the draft, and I usually don't talk about depth in the draft, but it's sticking out this year."

ESPN draft analyst Jordan Reid projected five running backs to go in the first two rounds in his post-combine mock draft, headlined by Boise State standout Ashton Jeanty at No. 6.

"It's not an overly great free agent class, and it's a deep running back [draft] class," Reid said. "I think that's going to have a negative effect on the free agent class."

Reid has 32 draftable grades at running back this year. The last time at least 30 running backs were selected in the same draft was 2017. Before that, it had last happened in 1998.

"It's very similar to what we saw in 2017," Reid said, comparing the 2025 class to a group that included Leonard Fournette, McCaffrey and Joe Mixon. "... I think we could get over 30 drafted this year. That just goes to show you how deep this running back class is. It's not as star-studded at the top as that 2017 group, but four to five years from now, I definitely think it could be mentioned in the same breath."

One team's initial position group evaluation, a league source familiar with their scouting process said, also identified nearly 30 running backs who could be drafted.

Twenty running backs were drafted in 2024, 18 in 2023 and 23 in 2022. Although two running backs went in the first round of the 2023 draft, none came off the board until the second round in 2024 and 2022.

An analysis by ESPN Research revealed the top seven rookie running backs of the past four classes have been largely more impactful than the top seven free agents -- with the exception being the 2024 free agent class, which outgained the rookies by more than 5,000 yards. In 2023, the top seven rookie running backs outgained the veteran free agents by 1,349 yards, scored 12 more rushing touchdowns and averaged 1.5 more yards per carry.

Another factor working against free agent running backs is the success of rookies selected late in the draft. Isiah Pacheco, a 2022 seventh-round pick, anchored the Chiefs' backfield in two Super Bowl-winning seasons, but when Pacheco missed significant time with an injury, the Chiefs turned to a pair of free agents in Kareem Hunt and Samaje Perine to help get them to a third straight Super Bowl.

Still, the high hit rate on less expensive, late-rounds running backs factors into the weak free agent market.

"Corners, tackles, defensive linemen -- when their tape's good, they go high, and when their tape's average, they're still going to go in the middle rounds," Veach said, citing the general scouting and team-building philosophy of many in the league. "Whereas the running backs, you can have a running back that rushes 4,000 yards for three years and still go into the sixth, seventh round."

But just because this year's free agent running back market isn't likely to reach the heights of the 2024 group doesn't mean it's a trend. Many in the league agreed, the market value of any given free agent running back is as individualized as that player's skill set.

"It's about the person that is up in the discussion," Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said, adding that a surplus of running backs created a short-term market inefficiency where the position's compensation was less than its on-field value.

"Long term, they'll typically get to their right water [level], but that's a position that, obviously, if you have the front to be able to block for them, they can change games."

Though Barkley's success might not turn into an immediate boon for the batch of free agents set to hit the market in less than a week, attitudes are slowly starting to shift around what was once considered one of the most disposable positions. And for those who met on that frustration-filled Zoom call nearly two years ago, that's progress.