Why the SEC's potential record number of NCAA tourney bids is a headache for the selection committee

The toughest challenge facing this year’s NCAA tournament selection committee may not be choosing between bubble teams or seeding the field from 1 to 68.

An unprecedented number of bids from a single conference could make the bracketing process more difficult than ever before.

Only six days before Selection Sunday, the SEC remains likely to eclipse the record 11 NCAA tournament bids that the 2011 Big East secured. Nine of 16 SEC men’s basketball programs are locks to make the field. Vanderbilt, Georgia and Arkansas also should sneak in. Oklahoma and Texas project as bubble teams who can bolster their cases by winning a game or two at this week’s SEC tournament.

The more NCAA tournament bids that the SEC receives, the tougher it will be for the selection committee to adhere to its bracketing principles. Opening-round matchups between teams from the same conference are flatly forbidden. Those matchups are also avoided whenever possible in the round of 32 and the Sweet 16.

As recently as last year, NCAA bracketing principles mandated that conference foes who played each other twice or more before Selection Sunday could not meet before the Sweet 16 and conference foes who faced each other three times could not meet before the Elite Eight. Teams from the same conference could only play each other as early as the round of 32 if they met no more than once during the regular season and conference tournament.

With the other power conferences absorbing former Pac-12 schools and ballooning to as many as 18 teams this year, selection committee members recognized that those bracketing principles would become more difficult to uphold. They got out ahead of the issue last July by relaxing the rules governing when conference foes can meet if one league puts nine or more teams into the NCAA tournament.

“They’ll still try to avoid having teams from the same conference meet as much as possible, but the first priority is keeping everyone on their true seed line,” said David Worlock, the NCAA’s media coordinator for March Madness, to Yahoo Sports.

In other words, if Ole Miss were to receive a No. 7 seed, the committee’s goal would be to avoid the Rebels drawing a potential second-round matchup against an SEC No. 2 seed, especially one they had already faced two or more times. But if that was the only option, the committee would rather do that than bump Ole Miss to a No. 6 or 8 seed to avoid the threat of an SEC vs. SEC matchup in the round of 32.

If history is any guide, some SEC-on-SEC crime is inevitable. Two sets of Big East teams squared off in the second round of the 2011 NCAA tournament. Third-seeded UConn dispatched sixth-seeded Cincinnati on its way to the national title and 11th-seeded Marquette upset third-seeded Syracuse.

The SEC is on pace to put as many as 13 or 14 teams in this year’s NCAA tournament because of its non-conference dominance this past November and December. The league won 88.9% of its games against other conferences, amassed a 32-16 record against the current KenPom top 50 and notched victories over the likes of Duke, Houston, Iowa State and St. John’s.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and other bracketologists project the SEC to receive six top-four seeds on Selection Sunday: Auburn (1), Florida (1), Tennessee (2), Alabama (2), Texas A&M (3) and Kentucky (3). By rule, the committee must place the top four SEC teams into different regions. Then it will figure out how to bracket the rest.

Though the SEC is likely to receive the most NCAA tournament bids on Sunday, it may not be the only conference that causes headaches for the committee. The Big Ten could land as many as 10 or 11 teams in the NCAA tournament field depending on how bubble teams Ohio State, Indiana and Nebraska finish. The Big 12 is likely to secure eight bids.

“Frankly, we don't think this issue is a one-off,” Warlock said. “It may not always be the SEC. It could be the Big Ten or another league that has double-digit bids. The committee is going to try to be prepared for that.”