Xavier vs Illinois Prediction: Odds, Expert Picks, Betting Trends and Stats for 2025 March Madness

The Illinois Fighting Illini (21-12) will face the Xavier Musketeers (22-11) in the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament on Friday in Milwaukee, WI.

Illinois enters the tournament as the No. 6 seed. They led the Big Ten in scoring, averaging 83.8 points per game shooting 45.0% from the field. Xavier, the No. 11 seed, led the Big East in fast break points, averaging 15.2 per game. The Musketeers knocked off the Texas Longhorns, 86-80, in Wednesday’s First Four game in Dayton.

Illinois boasts a high-scoring offense, but Xavier’s defense has been effective, limiting opponents to 71.2 points per game. Xavier’s ability to defend against Illinois’ potent offense will be crucial especially on the glass. Illinois has been dominant on the boards, averaging 42.5 rebounds per game, ranking second nationally.

The winner of this game earns the right to play the winner of the Troy vs. Kentucky game.

Lets dive into the matchup and offer some information and possibly a sweat or two.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch the opening tip, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

Game details & how to watch Xavier vs. Illinois

• Date: Friday, March 21, 2025
• Time: 9:45PM EST
• Site: Fiserv Forum
• City: Milwaukee, WI
• Network/Streaming: CBS

Never miss a second of the action and stay up to date with all the latest scores and player news. Check out our day-by-day NCAA Basketball Schedule Page that includes live game updates.

Game odds for Xavier vs. Illinois

The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of BetMGM:

• Odds: Xavier Musketeers (+135), Illinois Fighting Illini (-160)
• Spread: Fighting Illini -3.5
• Total: 160.5 points

Expert picks & predictions for Xavier vs. Illinois

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NCAA calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, injuries, and the schedule.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Friday’s Musketeers & Fighting Illini game:

• Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
• Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on Illinois -3.5.
• Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Game Total UNDER 160.5.

Xavier vs. Illinois: Top betting trends and recent stats

• Xavier is 8-2 on the Moneyline in their last 10 games
• Xavier is 7-3 against the spread in those 10 games (17-14 ATS for the season)
• Illinois has won 4 of their last 5 games and covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games (15-15-1 ATS for the season

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our NCAA Basketball Top Trends Tool on NBCSports.com!

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· Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)