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Russian (RU) Updated Wed, Apr 30, 2025, 5:55 AM 2 min read
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US stock futures fell on Wednesday as investors digested a deluge of economic data, led by the first contraction of the US economy in three years, and waited for a parade of Big Tech earnings to begin.
S&P 500 futures (ES=F) slid 1.3%, while those on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) dropped 1.8%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) sank 0.8% after the blue-chip index notched its longest win streak of 2025.
Markets are getting set to wrap up a tumultuous April that saw stocks whipsawed by President Trump's tariff hikes and burgeoning trade war with China. The Dow (^DJI) is on track for a monthly drop of 2.5%, alongside much smaller moves for the other major gauges.
An update on gross domestic product (GDP) showed a sharp drop in growth. The US economy contracted at an annual rate of 0.3% in the first quarter, according to an advanced estimate released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on Wednesday.
The decrease primarily reflected an increase in imports as Trump's tariff push rattled confidence and businesses rushed to stockpile. Economists had expected a drop in growth of 0.1% growth. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4%.
Prior to the GDP release, an ADP read on private payroll growth in April showed a pullback in hiring amid what the report called a "difficult" environment defined by an "unease" among businesses.
Later on Wednesday, investors will also receive the March reading of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. The "core" Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) will provide a snapshot of the data before tariffs began impacting it.
Meanwhile, tech giants are the highlights in Wednesday's flood of earnings reports. Microsoft (MSFT) is set to report its earnings after the bell, with pressure mounting for an AI payoff. Meta's (META) quarterly report is due after the market close, with the focus on how tariffs could impact its business.
Wall Street has found new reason to believe that Trump's upbeat stance on tariff negotiations will result in the duties ultimately being dialed down.
Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs
Trump said on Tuesday that he believed China will "eat" the cost of his tariffs, which would limit the impact on US consumers, adding that the country "deserved" its 145% rate. For its part, Beijing is quietly creating a list of US-made products to be exempt from its 125% tariffs, sources told Reuters.
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GDP contracts at annual rate of 0.3% in Q1
An update on gross domestic product (GDP) showed a sharp drop in growth with the US economy contracting at an annual rate of 0.3% in the first quarter, according to an advanced estimate released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on Wednesday.
It was the first negative reading in three years. Economists had expected a drop to 0.1% growth. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4%.
The decrease primarily reflected an increase in imports as Trump's tariff push rattled confidence and businesses rushed to stockpile.
Along with an uptick in imports, the BEA said a deceleration in consumer spending and a downtick in government spending also added pressure to the reading. Compared to the fourth quarter, these were partly offset by upturns in investment and exports.
Pricing pressures also escalated.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 3.6%, compared to an increase of 2.4% in the prior quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index jumped 3.5%, an acceleration from the 2.6% increase in Q4.
US private payroll growth disappoints in April, futures sink
ADP's read on private payroll growth in April showed a pullback in hiring amid what the report called a "difficult" environment defined by an "unease" among businesses.
The report showed private payrolls rose by 62,000 in April, fewer than forecast by economists.
Stock futures fell following the report, with Nasdaq futures off more than 1% to lead losses.
“Unease is the word of the day. Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. “It can be difficult to make hiring decisions in such an environment.”
Humana stock jumps as Medicare Advantage costs hit the mark
Humana stock (HUM) jumped 5% premarket after the health insurer reported mixed first quarter results and reaffirmed its full-year guidance.
Investors were watching Humana after UnitedHealth Group (UNH) reported higher-than-expected medical costs in its Medicare Advantage business, which caused the stock to crash on April 17.
Humana noted in its earnings that its Medicare Advantage costs were in line with expectations and that the government-funded private health insurance business was "performing as expected."
The company beat on adjusted earnings per share of $11.58, compared to Wall Street's estimates of $10.09. Revenue came in at a slight miss of $32.11 billion, just under the consensus of $32.15 billion.
Caterpillar misses first quarter estimates, flags tariff hit to annual sales
Caterpillar (CAT) reported first quarter earnings that missed Wall Street's expectations Wednesday, as sales fell across all its segments and demand for construction equipment weakened in the quarter.
The industrial company also laid out two different scenarios for its annual forecast, one accounting for a tariff impact and one excluding that impact.
The forecast that excluded tariffs showed an improvement from its previous outlook, which sent the stock more than 3% in premarket trading.
As for the tariff impact, Caterpillar said it expects $250 million and $350 million in additional tariff-related costs in its second quarter.
As Yahoo Finance's Dani Romero reported yesterday, construction job openings fell in March as developers hesitated to move forward with new projects since President Trump's across-the-board tariff announcements. Overall, Caterpillar stock has had a tough year so far and is down 15% year to date.
M&A is slowing in US but accelerating worldwide during new Trump era
Good morning. Here's what's happening today.
Earnings: Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), ADP (ADP), Albermarle (ALB), Caterpillar (CAT), Generac (GNRC), GE HealthCare (GEHC), Humana (HUM), Hess (HES), Qualcomm (QCOM), Robinhood (HOOD)
Economic data: MBA Mortgage Applications (week ending April 25); ADP employment change (April); GDP annualized (first quarter advance estimate); Personal consumption (first quarter advance estimate); Employment cost index (first quarter); Personal spending (March); Personal income (March) MNI Chicago PMI (April); PCE price index; Pending home sales (March)
Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning:
M&A accelerates worldwide, but not in US in new Trump era
China creates list of US goods spared from 125% tariffs
The US economy may have avoided a recession so far. Here's how that could change.
Starbucks slides as sales slump, CEO points to turnaround plan
House Republicans plan to defund the CFPB
Super Micro stock sinks as AI server maker slashes profit forecast
Stellantis suspends guidance, to reassess capex due to US tariffs
Corporate earnings paint 2 different pictures of the US consumer
Trump officials eye changes to Biden's AI chip export rule
Old wisdom of 'sell in May' back in focus as stock market churns
Super Micro stock tumbles as sales warning fans AI fears
Super Micro Computer's (SMCI) cuts to revenue and profit expectations are rattling nerves about prospects for AI-linked spending ahead of Big Tech's moment of earnings truth.
The AI server maker's customers have unexpectedly pushed back procurement decisions from the third quarter to the fourth, prompting the company to slash its sales guidance to $4.5 billion to $4.6 billion, down from the prior $5 billion to $6 billion.
Shares in Super Micro tumbled almost 16% in premarket trading after the disappointing preliminary results.
The AI jitters spread to chipmakers Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD), which saw their stock slip about 2% and 1%, respectively. Meanwhile, shares in server rivals Dell (DELL) and HPE (HPE) also retreated.
Reuters reports:
Crude oil set for steepest monthly drop in April amid trade war and easing OPEC+ cuts
Oil prices are on track to post their worst monthly performance for April, as mounting concerns over a slowing global economy—fueled by the ongoing U.S.-led trade tensions—dampen outlook for energy demand.
Bloomberg reports:
Trending tickers in after-hours trading
Starbucks (SBUX)
The stock in the coffee shop franchise dropped as much as 6.7% in extended trading as the Q2 earnings report disappointed Wall Street and lost investor faith in the new CEO. The company has also faltered in its Chinese expansion, with customer visits up but per-customer spending declining.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI)
Shares in server giant Super Micro Computer plummeted 15% in after-hours trading. The drop occurred after the company released disappointing preliminary third quarter results, citing delayed customer platform decisions moving sales into the fourth quarter.
Seagate (STX)
Seagate Technology stock jumped over 8.9% after the data storage provider released positive guidance for Q4, pointing towards revenue of $2.40 billion and adjusted earnings of $2.40 per share.
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